Dave_T

I waited for this to look like it was making a reversal in as confirmed way as possible. I had a support line worked out at about 0.82 and wanted to see price already move upwards from there before entering long.



After the competion of a morning star with a big up-candle on the hourly chart I decided to enter on a break of the high of this pattern. I wouldn't be surprised to see price drop before...

I wanted to get on the long side of this pair below 0.845 so that I could benefit if it breaks and break even if it doesn't, then maybe try again.



I entered this one using the same multiple timeframe view that I usually do but on smaller timeframes, namely hourly, 15 minute and 5 minute. I still identified an up-trend before going long, and lines of support and resistance on the longer timeframes.

I have been treating this as a downtrend lately and had several abortive attempts to go short. Since a large break above resistance 4 days ago following a strong upward daily channel I think it is time to test this as a buying opportunity. Here are the main driving forces behind my decision:

1. Price has so far been rejected below support and the recent trend on the daily chart.
2. A bullish candlestick pattern on the 4 hour chart shows a probability of a reversal in the direction...

I don't feel confident going long just yet on this pair because I can see a few too many reasons for it to reach 1.4 once again.

I have enough signals in place on this pair to justify placing a short entry order below the bearish candlestick pattern and possible support that has appeared on the hourly chart.

Just to give some insight into my reasoning - I don't like breakouts unless I feel there is a greater force behind them which is going to give them a push to keep going. So although I am using the possibility of a breakout on the hourly chart to pinpoint an entry, what I am really trading is the likelihood...