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» Simit's Stock Portfolio & Trading Plan
The Portfolio

The portfolio below does not include Simit's investments in high growth potential companies with market capitalization below $100 million. Those investments and more are available to Gold Club subscribers.



The Plan

1. I'm willing to risk at least 50%, while looking for at least 5X return on overall portfolio.
2. Buy at support, or a massive sell-off. Focus accumulation of uranium miners employing ISR techniques, gold miners with unique properties, royalty gold stocks, and firms with top management.
3. If any position doubles in value, sell half.
4. Hold the rest till top of market. For uranium miners, this is at least a price per pound of $140 in the uranium market; for gold, it depends: need to see a new international monetary agreement and some type of resolution to the global sovereign debt crisis.
5. Exit uranium if China and India back off nuclear.
6. Possibly exit on change of management.
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» Money—How to Get It and Keep It (Doug Casey)
Sep 01, 2015 - by InformedTrades
Originally Published by Casey Research
Editor's note: Casey Research founder Doug Casey literally wrote the book on profiting during economic turmoil. His book, Crisis Investing, spent multiple weeks as No. 1 on the New York Times bestseller list and became the best-selling financial book of 1980. Today, he is one of the most entertaining and controversial newsletter writers in the world.

Doug believes America is headed for a huge financial disaster. In today's weekend Masters Series essay, he shares some of the ways to protect yourself and prosper in an economic crisis. Even if you disagree with Doug, this essay – originally published in June 2012 – will teach you plenty…

Even if you are already wealthy, some thought on this topic is worthwhile. What would you do if some act of God or of government, a catastrophic lawsuit, or a really serious misjudgment took you back to square one? One thing about a real depression is that everybody loses. As Richard Russell has quipped, the winners are those who lose the least. As far as I'm concerned, the Greater Depression is looming, not just another cyclical downturn. You may find that although you're far ahead of your neighbors (you own precious metals, you've diversified internationally, and you don't believe much of what you hear from official sources), you're still not as prepared as you'd like.

I think a good plan would be to approach the problem in four steps: Liquidate, Consolidate, Create, and Speculate.

Step 1: Liquidate

Chances are high that you have too much "stuff." Your garage, basement, and attic are so full of possessions that you may be renting a storage unit for the overflow. That stuff is costing you money in storage fees, in depreciation, and in the weight of psychological baggage. It's limiting your options… It's weighing you down. Get rid of it.

Right now, it has a market value. Perhaps to a friend you can call. Or to a neighbor who might buy it if you have a yard sale. Or to some of the millions of people on eBay. A year from now, when we're out of the eye of the financial hurricane and back into the storm, it will likely have much less value. But right now, there's a market. Even if most people are no longer wearing those "He who dies with the most toys, wins" T-shirts that were popular at the height of the boom, there are still buyers. But the general standard of living is dropping, and mass psychology is changing. In a year or two, you may find there aren't any bids and the psychology of the country has changed radically. People will be desperate for cash, and they'll all be cleaning out their storage units (partly because they can't afford the rent on them).

Liquidate whatever you don't actually need – clothes, furniture, tools, cars, bikes, collections, electronics, properties, you name it. You'll be able to rebuy something like it, or better and cheaper. Just as important, you'll feel light and mobile, unburdened by a bunch of possessions that own you and weigh you down. It will definitely improve your psychology, which is critical to the next stage. And the cash it generates will be helpful for the rest of the plan.

Step 2: Consolidate

Take stock of your assets. After Step 1, that should be a lot easier because you'll have less junk but a lot more cash. You'll already feel more in control and empowered. And definitely richer. But your main assets aren't money or things. It's the knowledge, skills, and connections you possess. Take stock of them. What do you know? What can you do? Whom do you know? Make lists and think about these things, with an eye to maximizing their value.

If you're light on knowledge, skills, and connections, then do something about it – although if you're reading this, you probably already live life in a way that builds all of those assets daily. But there's always room for improvement. Think the Count of Monte Cristo. Or if you're not so classically oriented, think Sarah Connor after she met the Terminator.

Part of this process is to look at what you're now doing. The chances are excellent there's a better and more profitable allocation of your time. Even successful rock stars tend to reinvent themselves every few years. You don't want to get stale. That leads to Step 3.

Step 3: Create

Remember, the essence of becoming wealthy is to produce more than you consume and save the difference. But it's hard to maximize value working for somebody else. And when you're given a job, it can be taken away for any number of reasons. There is cause, and there is effect. You don't want to be the effect of somebody else's cause. You want to be the cause for everything in your life. That implies working for yourself. At least turn your present employer into a partner or an associate.

Perhaps go through the Yellow Pages (while they still exist), page by page, line by line, and see what you can provide as a service for the businesses advertising there. I promise you, they're all looking for someone to come along, kiss their world, and make it better. Think like an entrepreneur at all times. Remember that there is an infinite desire for goods and services on the part of the 6 billion other people on the planet. Find out how you can give them what they want, and the money will roll in.

I've said many times that I believe you could airdrop me naked and penniless into the heart of the Congo, and by the time I emerged, I'd not just have survived, I'd come out wealthy. And believe me, I don't think wealth is by any means the most important thing in life; it's important but should be considered a convenience, not an imperative. Not that I'd want to be airdropped into the Congo at the moment; I've gotten a bit lazy, I have other interests, and you can't be everywhere and do everything.

But now that I think about it, if I wanted to make a real fortune today from a small base, I might prefer Africa to any other continent. As an educated Westerner, you can quickly meet anyone on an equal level much more easily than you could at home. If you have a reason that makes any sense at all, you can be in the office of the president within a week. These countries are all plagued with incompetence and corruption, they need everything, and they're full of untapped resources and talent. This all inures to the great advantage of a foreign entrepreneur.

Here's an idea. For your next vacation, book a trip to Cameroon, Togo, Gabon, Zimbabwe, or Angola. Go through the Yellow Pages in the capital and meet everybody who is anybody. The chances are good you'll come up with several deals in the first week alone. If you can't find the time, send your kid who's just out of school and idiotically thinks he may want to misallocate time and money getting an MBA. This idea alone should be worth a million dollars. Or as I would prefer to think of it, 700 ounces of gold.

But to an economist, money, like all goods, has "declining marginal utility." In other words, the more of something you have, the less you need or want the next unit. Of course, more is always better, but it's unseemly, even degrading, to pursue anything beyond a certain point.

When I was in Toronto a couple months ago, I spoke with a Chinese friend who, I believe, is worth at least $250 million. As he waxed philosophic, he allowed that he didn't feel he really needed more than 30 extra-large to live exactly as he liked. I agreed, in that meals in the best restaurants, as well as the finest clothes, cars, and houses only cost so much. And it's well within a conservative return on that capital, without ever even touching the principal. Is it worth it to get more? Perhaps not, unless your interests in the rest of life are entirely too narrow. The point of money is to allow you freedom, not make you crazy with getting more.

That doesn't rule out speculation as an avocation, however. More – everything else being equal – is still better.

Step 4: Speculate

You've got money. Now, you have to keep it and make it grow, because staying in the same place amounts to going backwards. That's partially because the world at large will continue getting wealthier, even as the dollars you own lose value.

In the past, I've discussed why a lot of old rules for success are actually going to prove counterproductive over the next few years. Saving with dollars will be foolish as they dry up and blow away. Investing according to classic rules will be very tricky in a radically changing economy. Most people will try to outrun inflation by trading or gambling. The markets, which are the natural friend of productive people, will perversely prove very destructive to them in the years to come. You'll know when the final bottom in the stock market has come: The average guy won't want to hear about the stock market, if he even remembers it exists. And if he does, he'll want it abolished.

Instead of becoming a victim of inflation and other politically caused distortions in the marketplace, you can profit from these things. Rational speculation is the optimum approach.

What to Do if You're Already Wealthy?

Perhaps, however, you've already covered all the financial bases to your satisfaction. Quo vadis? I have several thoughts on the meaning of wealth. You may find some of them of value as prices of everything fluctuate radically in the years ahead.

First, recognize that wealth is a high moral good. Don't feel guilty about having it or about wanting more.

If you've already accumulated and deployed enough capital to allow you to jump off the golden treadmill, congratulations: Chances are high that you are an exceptional human being. I say that because the moral value of being wealthy is underrated. I don't mean that in a Calvinistic way, in that Calvin believed Yahweh rewarded the righteous by making them rich. But I do believe that productive people – people who work hard to provide goods and services for others – definitely tend to be wealthier than unproductive people. They deserve to be. And since we don't live in a malevolent universe, people generally get what they deserve. So yes, wealth is definitely one indicator of moral excellence.

Sure, some wealthy people got that way by lying, cheating, and stealing. But they're exceptions. It's much easier to become wealthy if (in addition to having virtues like diligence, competence, and judgment) you are known to be truthful and honest. Those who automatically think ill of the rich are, at best, paranoid fools. Put it this way: Rich people may lack some virtues, but they definitely have at least a few that made them rich. Poor people, on the other hand, will certainly lack some virtues, and they'll definitely have some vices that kept them poor.

I'm a fan of some aspects of George Gurdjieff, the late-19th to mid-20th century Russian mystic, who was also a merchant adventurer at some points in his colorful life. He said that anyone who successfully employed at least 20 other people must be considered at least partially enlightened and a type of guru. That viewpoint always resonated with me. Self-made wealthy people may not be saints, mystics, intellectuals, or even especially thoughtful or moral. But they've proven they're better than the average bear in at least one important way: They can create and conserve wealth. And they've thereby eased everyone's path to further accomplishments.

Second, figure out your purpose in having money.

Sure, money makes life easier. And it's nice how it enables you to assist people you like with material things. But I strongly suggest that you not take too short a view on this matter. Accelerating advances in medical science are not only lengthening human life expectancy, but new developments now in the works have the potential to vastly improve your capability and health as well.

Is it possible to live to age 200, with all the wealth, knowledge, and wisdom that implies, while maintaining the body of a 30-year-old? Not yet. But the prospect is on the horizon. It will, however, be available only to those who can afford it. Ray Kurzweil makes a case that the Singularity is near, and I buy his reasoning. It would be tragic if anyone frittered away his wealth, thinking he wouldn't live very long, and then succumbed to a self-fulfilling prophecy, not because of medical difficulties, but because of financial difficulties.

Third, don't give your money to charity.

Entirely apart from showing a lack of both imagination and foresight, it's a complete waste of good money, pure and simple. Contrary to popular opinion, it rarely does any good; it often does great harm. The whole concept of charitable giving is corrupt and desperately in need of a complete rethinking.

Fourth, if you do care about posterity (who knows, you might be reincarnated…), and on the chance you don't make it to the Singularity, carefully consider how to dispose of your estate.

For one thing, there's no reason to automatically leave anything to your children – unless they deserve it. The notion that someone should inherit your money just because he shares your genes is flawed and thoughtless. The example of Marcus Aurelius leaving the Roman Empire to his worthless son, Commodus, should be instructive. Wealth should be left to someone who is most capable of increasing it – at least if you want to benefit humanity in general. And yes, I'm quite aware that humanity in general may deserve absolutely nothing.

At a minimum, consider that memes are far more important than genes. It's wiser, therefore, to leave your wealth only to individuals (related to you or not) who will carry forth values you hold dear and are worthy of the wealth. If nothing else, make sure you disinherit the government.

Also consider that dividing wealth dissipates it and generally makes it less useful. If you have $1 million, you could leave $1,000 to each of 1,000 people. But, apart from the fact that it's unlikely anyone knows 1,000 worthy people, that much money is only enough for a modest vacation or a few baubles. The larger the pool of capital, the more ways it can be used, the more creative power it has, and the more likely it will be conserved and used creatively. I favor the Roman system, in which one could adopt children of any age – but always after you could see what their character was. You might want to do that if your own kids don't make the grade.

The Bottom Line

If you want serious money, you have to get serious about money. You need to understand these fundamentals and never forget them. Don't let all the garbage reported in the financial media you read, see, or hear confuse you about what money really is. Don't consume more than you make: save! Don't spend: invest!

Editor's note: Casey Research's latest book – Going Global – is a must-read. The book is jam-packed with hundreds of techniques and tips for surviving a currency crisis… including the five currencies best-positioned to survive an inflationary storm (page 29)… the top-recommended U.S. bank for buying foreign currencies (page 131)… the best ways to acquire and hold foreign currencies (page 34)… and much, much more. Claim your copy right here.

The article Money—How to Get It and Keep It was originally published at caseyresearch.com.
View the Casey Research Guide to Crisis Investing on InformedTrades
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» Stock Market Trading For Beginners (top dog trading)
Sep 01, 2015 - by InformedTrades
Recently I’ve been receiving a lot of requests from people who are beginners trading the stock market.

They like the tutorials I’ve been putting out, but they’ve said, “Hey Barry, your stuff is great for the people who have been trading for a while and who already have a bit of an education about reading stock charts, but can you put together some more ‘beginner level” training for us newbies?”

So, in response to popular demand, I said … wait for it …

SURE!

Below if the first in a new series of free videos entitled “Stock Market Trading for Beginners.”

Actually, most of the material covered also applies to Forex and futures traders as well. The first 3 videos focus purely on how to read price action and that applies to any financial market you may trade.

The first video is below. After you watch this one, feel free to watch the rest on YouTube. So far I have 3 videos in the series, but by the time you see this article, there may be more. Just type in “Stock Market Trading For Beginners” in the YouTube search bar and the videos should show up.

Watch them in order because one builds on the information in the previous ones.

Oh, and LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW letting me know how you liked this video and what you’d like me to cover in the future.
The post Stock Market Trading For Beginners appeared first on .

Go to the Top DogTrading Blog

Click Here To Get Your FREE Five Day Video Trading Course from Top Dog Trading
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» Australia holds rate, fresh data to determine next move
Sep 01, 2015 - by InformedTrades
Australia's central bank left its benchmark cash rate steady at 2.00 percent, as widely expected, repeating its recent guidance that fresh economic data will guide its outlook and determine whether the current policy stance "will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target."
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has cut its rate by a total of 50 basis points this year, also repeated its comment from its previous board meeting that the "Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices," omitting any reference for the need of further depreciation of the exchange rate.
The Australian dollar, known as the Aussie, started depreciating in September 2014 and has now fallen to levels not seen since April 2009. In response to the RBA's latest statement, the Aussie firmed slightly to 1.399 to the U.S. dollar from around 1.40, but is still down 12.8 percent this year.
In his statement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens acknowledged the "further softening in conditions in China and east Asia of late," but added that growth the United States was stronger and contrasted the recent volatility in equity markets from developments in China with relative stability in other financial markets.
However, Stevens also said key commodity prices were "much lower than a year ago," resulting in falling terms of trade for Australia.
Australia's economy is continuing to expand moderately, Steven said, with spare capacity likely to continue for "some time yet," and inflationary pressures are contained so inflation will remain consistent with the RBA's target for the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
Australia's inflation rate rose slightly to 1.50 percent in the second quarter of the year from 1.3 percent in the first quarter, still well below the RBA's target of 2 to 3 percent.
"In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative," Stevens said, adding that house prices in Sydney continue to rise strongly and the central bank was working with other regulators to contain any risks that may arise from the housing market.


The Reserve Bank of Australia issued the following statement:


"Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some further softening in conditions in China and east Asia of late, but stronger US growth. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, in part reflecting increased supply, including from Australia. Australia's terms of trade are falling.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease policy. Equity markets have been considerably more volatile of late, associated with developments in China, though other financial markets have been relatively stable. Long-term borrowing rates for most sovereigns and creditworthy private borrowers remain remarkably low. Overall, global financial conditions remain very accommodative.
In Australia, most of the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues. While growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, it has been accompanied with somewhat stronger growth of employment and a steady rate of unemployment over the past year. Overall, the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet, with domestic inflationary pressures contained. Inflation is thus forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. Credit is recording moderate growth overall, with growth in lending to the housing market broadly steady over recent months. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved lower and been more volatile recently, in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
The Board today judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting. Further information on economic and financial conditions to be received over the period ahead will inform the Board's ongoing assessment of the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target."
www.CentralBankNews.info




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» Sri Lanka holds rate, remittances, tourism to support C/A
Aug 31, 2015 - by InformedTrades
Sri Lanka's central bank left its key interest rates steady, saying regular inflow of remittances and earnings from tourism continue to support the current account despite a widening of the trade deficit in the first half of the year due to higher spending on imports relative to export earnings.
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka, which has maintained its rates since cutting them by 50 basis points in April, added that gross official reserves dropped to US$6.8 billion by end-July from $7.5 billion end-June but reserves should rise during the rest of the year due to higher inflows from an improved business outlook and investor confidence along with the realization of proceeds from the currency swap arrangement with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and a planned long-term loan of $500 million.
Sri Lanka's trade deficit narrowed to $689.2 million in June from $702.9 million in May as imports rose to $1.633 billion and exports rose to $944.1 million.
Sri Lanka's rupee has been depreciating against the rising U.S. dollar since January this year, with its exchange rate volatile in the last month.
On Friday Reuters reported that a state-run bank, through which the central bank normally directs the market, again allowed the exchange rate to depreciate by 0.11 percent to 134.30 to the dollar, in line with expectations that the central bank was allowing the rupee to depreciate in sync with other regional currencies.
Today the rupee eased further to trade at 134.5 to the dollar, down 2.5 percent this year.
Sri Lanka's headline inflation rate was negative in August for the second consecutive month at minus 0.2 percent, the same as in July, with the annual average rate at 1.0 percent in August compared with July's 1.3 percent.
The governor of the central bank, Arjuna Mahendran, has said he will step down if former President Mahinda Rajapaksa returns to power after parliamentary elections. Mahendran took over the central bank in January.


The Central Bank of Sri Lanka issued the following statement:



"Headline inflation remained in the negative territory for the second consecutive month, recording -0.2 per cent in August 2015 on a year-on-year basis. Headline inflation, on an annual average basis, moderated further to 1.0 per cent in August 2015 from 1.3 per cent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, core inflation, which reflects the underlying price movements in the economy, increased to 3.9 per cent in August 2015 on a year-on-year basis, from 3.5 per cent in the previous month. Going forward, the inflation outlook and expectations remain favourable for the remainder of the year, supported by improved domestic supply conditions and subdued global commodity prices.

Although some pressures in the short term interest rates were observed along with declining liquidity levels in the domestic money market, most market interest rates continue to remain at low levels. Supported by the prevailing low interest rates, the year-on-year growth of credit extended to the private sector by commercial banks accelerated to 19.4 per cent in June 2015 compared to 17.6 per cent in May 2015. Credit disbursed in absolute terms increased by around Rs. 55 billion during the month of June, while on a cumulative basis, credit to the private sector increased by around Rs. 205 billion during the first half of 2015 compared to a decline of Rs. 53 billion during the corresponding period in 2014. The expansion in private sector credit in the first half of the year was largely due to higher disbursements of credit to the Industry and Services sectors. Nevertheless, the rapid increase in the imports of consumer durables including motor vehicles driven by credit available at low interest rates, among other things, has raised some concerns.

The Central Bank is closely monitoring these developments in order to ensure that credit continues to be available to support productive economic activity while avoiding excessive expansion in credit in the period ahead. Meanwhile, driven by the expansion in private sector credit along with increased bank borrowings by the public sector, the year-on-year growth of broad money (M2b) remained at 15.3 per cent in June 2015 compared to 15.4 per cent in the previous month.

In the external sector, increased expenditure on imports relative to earnings from exports widened the trade deficit in the month of June 2015 as well as on a cumulative basis during the first half of the year. However, regular inflows of remittances and earnings from tourism continued to support the current account balance. In the meantime, net inflows to the financial account moderated further during this period, largely responding to expected developments in the advanced economies. In addition, reflecting the repayments made under the IMF's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the payments made to the Asian Clearing Union (ACU), as well as the intervention by the Central Bank to reduce excess volatility in the domestic foreign exchange market, gross official reserves, which stood at US dollars 7.5 billion at end June 2015, are estimated to have decreased to US dollars 6.8 billion by end July 2015.

However, official reserves are expected to increase during the remainder of the year with higher inflows arising from improved business outlook and investor confidence along with the realisation of the remaining proceeds of the currency swap arrangement with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) amounting of US dollars 1.1 billion and long term financial flows to the government, including the planned term loan of US dollars 500 million. Reflecting the domestic and global developments, the Sri Lankan rupee has depreciated by 2.3 per cent to Rs. 134.30 against the US dollar so far during the year.




Taking the above developments in the economy into consideration, the Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 31 August 2015, was of the view that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate. Accordingly, the Monetary Board decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank unchanged at 6.00 per cent and 7.50 per cent, respectively."

www.CentralBankNews.info







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» This week in monetary policy: Sri Lanka, Bulgaria, Australia, Poland, Brazil, Albania, ECB and Sweden
Aug 31, 2015 - by InformedTrades
This week (August 31 through September 5) central banks from eight countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Sri Lanka, Bulgaria, Australia, Poland, Brazil, Albania, the euro area and Sweden.
Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.

The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.



WEEK 36 AUG 31-SEP 5, 2015: COUNTRY DATE RATE LATEST YTD 1 YR AGO MSCI SRI LANKA 31-Aug 6.00% 0 -50 6.50% FM BULGARIA 31-Aug 0.01% -1 -1 0.04% FM AUSTRALIA 1-Sep 2.00% 0 -50 2.50% DM POLAND 2-Sep 1.50% 0 -50 2.50% EM BRAZIL 2-Sep 14.25% 50 250 11.00% EM ALBANIA 2-Sep 2.00% 0 -25 2.50% FM EURO AREA 3-Sep 0.05% 0 0 0.05% DM SWEDEN 3-Sep -0.35% -10 -35 0.25% DM











www.CentralBankNews.info




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