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» Simit's Stock Portfolio & Trading Plan
The Portfolio

The portfolio below does not include Simit's investments in high growth potential companies with market capitalization below $100 million. Those investments and more are available to Gold Club subscribers.



The Plan

1. I'm willing to risk at least 50%, while looking for at least 5X return on overall portfolio.
2. Buy at support, or a massive sell-off. Focus accumulation of uranium miners employing ISR techniques, gold miners with unique properties, royalty gold stocks, and firms with top management.
3. If any position doubles in value, sell half.
4. Hold the rest till top of market. For uranium miners, this is at least a price per pound of $140 in the uranium market; for gold, it depends: need to see a new international monetary agreement and some type of resolution to the global sovereign debt crisis.
5. Exit uranium if China and India back off nuclear.
6. Possibly exit on change of management.
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To get a sample of Simit's writing style, and to see his coverage of macro issues as well as companies with a market capitalization larger than $100 million, see his commentary on SeekingAlpha.

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» Central Bank News Link List - Oct 31, 2014 - Kuroda's easing in Japan seen adding to pressure on Korea's Lee
Oct 31, 2014 - by InformedTrades
Here's today's Central Bank News' link list,click throughif you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.

www.CentralBankNews.info


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» Demise of the Petrodollar (Casey Research)
Oct 31, 2014 - by InformedTrades
Originally Published by Casey Research
Vladimir Putin is stripping America of its superpower status. But he's not using bombs or tanks to do it. He plans to destroy the one thing that underpins demand for the dollar and Americans’ way of life: the petrodollar system. This was the secret pact Kissinger struck in the vast oil rich deserts of Saudi Arabia. America guaranteed to defend Saudi Arabia and the House of Saud in perpetuity if the Saudis would sell oil in dollars. But many countries resent this system, and their leading spokesman is Putin. There’s a new Colder War going on, and it’s threatening the only thing holding America at the top.




Before Putin makes another move, pick up a copy of The Colder War and learn why the stakes have never been higher and why we’ve never been more vulnerable. Because if the petrodollar dies, so does America as a superpower.



The article Demise of the Petrodollar was originally published at caseyresearch.com.
View the Casey Research Guide to Crisis Investing on InformedTrades
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» Mexico holds rate on unchanged inflation, growth outlook
Oct 31, 2014 - by InformedTrades
Mexico's central bank maintained its benchmark target for its interbank overnight rate at 3.0 percent, as expected, saying the balance of risks for inflation and economic activity were unchanged from its previous monetary policy decision in September.
The Bank of Mexico, which surprised markets by cutting its rate by 50 basis points in June, said it still expects annual headline inflation to end this year around 4 percent and converge toward its 3.0 percent target by the middle of 2015.
Although the downside risks to global growth had intensified, the central bank said the balance of risks to Mexico's economy remained unchanged due to the prospects for the U.S. economy and the effects of the country's structural reforms that have recently been carried out.
And while global financial markets have been volatile recently, the bank said changes in Mexican financial markets had been of lower magnitude than in other emerging market, with only marginal increases in Mexican interest rates and orderly price movements.
However, the central bank said it would not rule out possible higher volatility in the future.
Mexico's headline inflation rate rose to 4.22 percent in September form 4.15 percent in August but the central bank said this was mainly due to higher prices for livestock products and some processed foods that use this as inputs.
Core inflation, however, has remained close to the 3 percent level, the bank said, and inflation expectations remain very close to 3 percent. Mexico's core inflation rate eased to 3.34 percent in September from 3.37 percent in August.

The Bank of Mexico issued the following statement: (translation by Google)

"The Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico has decided to keep the 3.0 percent target for the interbank interest rate overnight.

Recent developments in the global economy has shown new signs of weakness. While economic activity in the US continues to consolidate the recovery process after recording strong growth in the second quarter, the slowdown in the global economy and the appreciation of the dollar, among other factors, could moderate growth in 2015. this, together with the recent decline in inflation and prospects has led since our last statement at a market expectation of a postponement of the starting date of the elevation of the benchmark interest rate from the Federal Reserve, though persists uncertainty about it. In the euro area has been a marked slowdown in economic activity along with further reductions in inflation, which puts this well below the ECB target. This has led to a new round of monetary easing by the central bank said, although no apparent results, which has affected the expectations. Meanwhile, growth in several emerging economies continued to slow, highlighting what happened in China and Brazil. The balance of risks for growth in the global economy has deteriorated. While still an expectation that the difference between the monetary stances in major advanced economies will be accentuated in the medium term, it is expected that at the prospect of slower global growth, falling prices of basic commodities and low levels inflation, the monetary policy stance in most of the advanced and emerging economies will remain accommodative in the following quarters.

The described economic environment, coupled with the persistent geopolitical risks and the alarm caused by the evolution of the epidemic of Ebola has been reflected in a significant increase in volatility in international financial markets, significant declines in the prices of some raw materials and, in particular depreciation of the currencies of emerging economies. In the case of Mexico a moderate depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar, downward adjustment in the rate of the Mexican Stock Exchange, with marginal increases in interest rates was observed. So far these movements have occurred in an orderly manner, with appropriate levels of operations and liquidity. However, even when adjustments on financial variables in Mexico have been far lower magnitude than in most emerging economies, can not rule out the possibility of higher volatility in the future.

Economic activity in Mexico during the third quarter seems to have shown a modest recovery. This has been mainly contributed buoyant external demand, although domestic has also improved on its evolution in the first two quarters. They continue to observe conditions of slack in the economy, although it is expected that these conditions will continue to fall. No pressure on inflation perceived by the side of aggregate demand, or expected to be presented in the following quarters. Despite intensifying downside risks to growth in the world economy, the prospects for the evolution of the US economy, together with structural reforms recently enacted, makes the balance of risks to economic activity in Mexico remains the same from the previous monetary policy decision.

While the annual headline inflation has remained above 4 percent, the level is mainly explained by increases in the prices of livestock products and in some processed foods that use these as inputs. However, core inflation has remained at levels close to 3 percent. For their part, have remained stable inflation expectations for a medium- and long-term surveys from analysts and derivative market information, the latter being located very close to 3 percent.

As stated in the previous announcement of monetary policy, it is estimated that the annual headline inflation close around 4 percent in 2014, which at the beginning of 2015 present a significant decrease and converge to about 3 percent from mid last year. For core inflation is expected at the end of 2014 is close to 3 percent in 2015 and will be below that level. This forecast is based, among other factors, on the fading effect of the tax changes that took effect at the beginning of this year, at a lower rate of annual change in the price of gasoline, the impact of dilution changes mentioned in the previous paragraph relative prices and, of course, in the posture of monetary policy, which will ensure that changes in relative prices have no second order effects. While there are upside risks to the inflation trajectory, including the possibility of further currency depreciation as a result of volatility in international financial markets and increases in inflation above the minimum wage and increased productivity expected, there are also lower, and further declines in the prices of telecommunications services and the possibility of a less dynamic evolution of economic activity than expected if recent social developments in the country affecting the expectations of economic agents . However, it is estimated that the balance of risks for inflation remains unchanged from the previous decision.

Given the above, the Board of Governors decided to keep 3 percent target rate for overnight interbank rate, under which estimates the monetary stance is consistent with the efficient convergence of inflation to the target 3 percent. Going forward, it will remain attentive to the performance of all the determinants of inflation and expectations for a medium- and long-term. In particular, monitor the evolution of the degree of slack in the economy before the expected recovery, including the potential impact of implementing structural reforms and monetary stance relative to Mexico against the United States. All this in order to be able to reach the designated target inflation."

www.CentralBankNews.info





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» Russia raises rate 150 bps to curb inflation expectations
Oct 31, 2014 - by InformedTrades
Russia's central bank raised its key policy rate by a sharp 150 basis points to 9.50 percent, larger than expected by economists, to curb rising inflationary expectations after a fall in the value of the ruble and import restrictions due to international sanctions over Ukraine boosted inflation.
The Bank of Russia, which has now raised rates by 400 basis points this year, also said the expected decline inflation would be slower than it had expected and it would "continue to take measures aimed at stabilizing inflation expectations and slowing down consumer prices growth" to its target of 4.0 percent.
Russia's headline inflation rate was estimated to have risen by 8.4 percent as of Oct. 27, up from 8 percent in September and 7.6 percent in August due to an acceleration in food prices.
The central bank said it expects inflation to remain above 8 percent until the end of 2014 and in the first quarter of 2015, up from its September forecast that inflation would remain above 7 percent.
Russia's economy has been hit by growing external political uncertainty and lower oil prices with consumer demand cooling along with real wage growth and retail lending.
Russia's Gross Domestic Product expanded by only 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the same 2013 quarter, down from a rate of 0.8 percent in the second quarter, and the central bank estimates growth of close to zero in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2015.
The Bank of Russia issued the following statement:


"On 31 October 2014 the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to raise the Bank of Russia key rate to 9.5 percent per annum. During September-October significant changes in external conditions have taken place: considerable fall in oil prices and stricter sanctions imposed by certain countries against several large Russian companies. As a result the ruble depreciated that together with restrictions on the import of certain food items imposed in August resulted in further acceleration in consumer prices growth. According to the Bank of Russia estimates, inflation will remain above 8% till the end of 2014 and in 2015 Q1. Continuing high growth of consumer price will result in persistent increase in inflation expectations creating additional inflation risks. The Bank of Russia will continue to take measures aimed at slowing down consumer prices growth to the target of 4% in the medium run. If the external conditions improve and inflation and inflation expectation show a stable downward trend, the Bank of Russia will be ready to start monetary policy easing.
In September-October, inflation grew more rapidly than had been expected earlier. According to the estimates as of the 27 October, annual consumer price growth rate was 8.4%. Core inflation rose to 8.2% in September 2014. Acceleration of inflation was mainly provoked by accelerated price growth for food items from 10.3% in August to 11.4% in September. Price growth rates for non-food products remained stable at 5.5%. Inflation dynamics was mainly influenced by ruble depreciation and external trade restrictions imposed in August 2014. According to the Bank of Russia estimates, cumulative impact of these factors on the annual consumer prices growth to the end of the 2014 will be about 2.5 pp (of which 1.2 pp — impact of external trade restrictions imposed in August, 1.3 pp — impact of ruble depreciation). Amid accelerated consumer prices growth, inflation expectations of households and businesses continued to increase imposing additional pressure on prices.
Tighter monetary conditions haven’t offset the influence of the aforementioned factors on inflation expectations yet though monetary aggregates dynamics sets the ground for inflation decline in the medium run. According to the estimates, annual money supply (M2) growth rate decreased from 16.1% on 1 October 2013 to 7.4% on 1 October 2014. Continuing growth of interest rates on household deposits contributes to maintain the propensity to save and increase attractiveness of deposits for cash holdings. Given interest rates hike and tighter borrower and collateral requirements, lending growth sees a slowdown (adjusted for currency revaluation).
According to the Bank of Russia estimates, annual GDP growth rate in 2014 Q3 was 0.2%. Economic slack does not have considerable restraining effect on consumer prices increase as it is mostly caused by structural factors. Utilisation of productive factors — labour force and commercially viable productive capacities — is high though labour productivity grows slowly. Due to the long-term demographic trends labour supply decreases. Besides structural factors, increased external political uncertainty has an adverse impact on economic activity. Amid limited access to long-term financing and higher borrower requirements from Russian banks, fixed capital investments are contracting. At the same time consumer demand is cooling down as real wage growth and retail lending are slowing. External economic conditions have restraining effect on the Russian economy: oil prices see a significant decline while economic activity of most Russia’s trading partners remains weak. However, exchange rate dynamics and restrictions on the import of certain food items support some industries. According to the Bank of Russia estimates, economic growth rate in 2014 Q4 and 2015 Q1 will be close to zero.
Consumer prices growth is very likely to persist at the current level till the end of Q1 2015 due to remaining sizeable impact of restrictions on the import of certain food items and ruble depreciation in August-October 2014 on prices. Later, as the economy gradually adjusts to external trade restrictions and the impact of exchange rate dynamics on prices reduction, inflation and inflation expectations are expected to see a renewed decrease. Slower consumer prices growth will also be facilitated by subdued aggregate demand with aggregate goods and services output remaining below the potential. However, inflation decline will be slower than previously expected. The Bank of Russia will continue to take measures aimed at stabilising inflation expectations and slowing down consumer prices growth to the target in the medium term. Should the external conditions improve, and inflation and inflation expectation show a stable downward trend, the Bank of Russia will be ready to start monetary policy easing."






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