Getting Back Into Gold
Tags gold
Well folks, I exited gold between $1060 and $1080 USD per ounce exiting in portions. Now, I plan to start getting back in in to my full size position.
Above is a daily chart of gold. MACD shows a crossover just as we start to get the recent rallies in gold. The exponential moving averages are starting to make bullish crossovers as well. The hammer at $1040 stands out as a strong support level. I'd like to see price pullback a bit more to support, though I will begin to scale in any event, as I'd prefer to have gold as my base currency as much as possible, as price permits.
In terms of managing the position, I am bullish on gold for the long haul, and think we will steadily march to new highs. I gold to be the primary beneficiary of the global sovereign debt crisis. Gold's performance against the Euro this year, which has suffered due to the sovereign debt issues in Greece, Spain, Italy, and other European countries, supports that viewpoint.
With that in mind, my plan for gold is to keep it very simple; I'll use MACD as a guiding light to find entry and exit points.
Above is a daily chart of gold. MACD shows a crossover just as we start to get the recent rallies in gold. The exponential moving averages are starting to make bullish crossovers as well. The hammer at $1040 stands out as a strong support level. I'd like to see price pullback a bit more to support, though I will begin to scale in any event, as I'd prefer to have gold as my base currency as much as possible, as price permits.
In terms of managing the position, I am bullish on gold for the long haul, and think we will steadily march to new highs. I gold to be the primary beneficiary of the global sovereign debt crisis. Gold's performance against the Euro this year, which has suffered due to the sovereign debt issues in Greece, Spain, Italy, and other European countries, supports that viewpoint.
With that in mind, my plan for gold is to keep it very simple; I'll use MACD as a guiding light to find entry and exit points.
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I understand and support you from a fundamental standpoint but.. ... there's always a but lol, from a technical point, i wouldn't see a reason to go long. Gold seems week to me now. Can you post the eft for gold Simit? So at least we can see volume.
ForexerPosted 02-22-2010 at 08:03 AM by forexer
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I agree with catching a few points to the upside, but I don't think this is the best spot. JMO.
EktraderPosted 02-22-2010 at 08:12 AM by Ektrader 
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Just had to drop a note as I've been meaning to for some time but never posted... I think Simit's analysis of Gold has been very well done and very informative from the very begining. Keep it up!
For the record, in the longer-term, I tend to agree with the overall direction.Posted 02-22-2010 at 09:14 AM by DREBG
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You have had 2 structural failures around 1/11/10 and 2/04/10, as best as I can tell from your chart. (as seen by the purple circles)
Trades marked to the left by the numbers 1 and 2 are areas that I would look to short if I traded gold.
The red lines indicate the highest probability entries (lower lines) and stop placement above the upper red lines.
Trade 1 is not as great because risk reward is not much better that 2 to 1.
Trade 2 is much better should it climb to those highs again.
That being said I'd be long if trade 1 fails as stops should be lining those high's and losing profit from a trade = scared money
. BUT at trade indicated by 2 I'd be geared to go short as supply is waiting on you. Again go long if trade 2 fails, because of stops...
Let the market come to you and have a plan ready when it does. No right or wrong here, just reacting to what it tells you.
Good luck,
Dr Pip
P.S. Almost forgot to mention.. should those trades not come into play I'd look to short below that 1,100 consolidation area. Again I do not trade gold but hopefully that helps.Posted 02-22-2010 at 10:27 AM by Dr Pip
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Although we obviously come from different schools of training. I agree with your analysis once again.Quote:Originally Posted by Dr Pip
You have had 2 structural failures around 1/11/10 and 2/04/10, as best as I can tell from your chart. (as seen by the purple circles)
Trades marked to the left by the numbers 1 and 2 are areas that I would look to short if I traded gold.
The red lines indicate the highest probability entries (lower lines) and stop placement above the upper red lines.
Trade 1 is not as great because risk reward is not much better that 2 to 1.
Trade 2 is much better should it climb to those highs again.
That being said I'd be long if trade 1 fails as stops should be lining those high's and losing profit from a trade = scared money. BUT at trade indicated by 2 I'd be geared to go short as supply is waiting on you. Again go long if trade 2 fails, because of stops...
Let the market come to you and have a plan ready when it does. No right or wrong here, just reacting to what it tells you.
Good luck,
Dr Pip
P.S. Almost forgot to mention.. should those trades not come into play I'd look to short below that 1,100 consolidation area. Again I do not trade gold but hopefully that helps.
Bottom line, gold still has a lot to prove and and a lot of supply to conquer before stepping in for the long haul. If there is any bounce at all at 1200. I would remain bearish. I would expect a (jump the creek) maneuver at 1200 to even consider any bullish thoughts. If it sluggs back to that level on low to medium volume. That gold will turn rose gold from all the blood shed.
Happy Trading
EktraderPosted 02-22-2010 at 10:57 AM by Ektrader
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hell, these charts are soooooo complicated .... i just BOUGHT MORE GOLD (i.e. physical gold in €uros, of course) at $1,080 because there was both i had some money to invest and gold was cheaper than it was few weeks earlier @ $1,200 ...
motto: in uptrends buy on dips and keep your stuff as long as the trend continues
damn, that investment stuff is soooo easy
good luck,
j.Posted 02-22-2010 at 05:25 PM by jaro g.
Updated 02-22-2010 at 05:28 PM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This? -
Guys from an economic view point, if you think that Gold price is a derivation of the US$ move, then there is a lot of contradiction to the above forecast. US$ is about to continue its bullish stance with the scare from PIIGS and therefore, this is a strong force. If you agree that the force is with you (!), then Gold is just faking a breakout, and should start to move down, with a breakdown through the down TL connecting the highs of 1225 and 1160. This means that your long positions are going to be short lived and you will have to have your stops activated to get out of it.
Nothing is to say that US$ and Gold have to be inverse of each other either, but history (and TA folks only rely on chart history) says that it will react appropriately.
IMF 400 ton sale announcement is something that is even stronger on the supply front. Greece might have to sell off its 80 tons also (doubt it though) which is another supply factor.
Of course, I am not as convincing as the above, but all of you guys have taught me how the inter-linking works and now I get it. My view is from an economic, fundamental and technical standpoint, and I will correct myself based on your views (if necessary).
So, if I have said something inaccurate, please correct me.
ps: I am long Gold ETF and Gold Physical, but waiting to buy a ton more Copper, Platinum and Silver upon a deep correction, hence the thoughts above.
KennyPosted 02-22-2010 at 06:15 PM by kkpatel1924
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i hope i would grab some fresh money 2 buy much, much more (physical) silver + gold/silver stocks if that price correction really happenedQuote:Originally Posted by kkpatel1924
... Gold is just faking a breakout, and should start to move down ...
btw, i wouldnt buy any platinum + copper because it is too industrial for my taste ...
as always, just my 2 golden cents, i could be wrongPosted 02-23-2010 at 02:31 PM by jaro g.
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