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Great Reversal Pattern & Swing Setup on USDSGD -- But Is the Move Already Underway?

Posted 08-21-2014 at 08:45 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags usdsgd

I really like this USDSGD setup; we see a clear downtrend, price has pulled back to a resistance level within this downtrend, which happens to coincide with the key 200 EMA. Moreover, we are seeing a reversal candlestick at this level as well.

The biggest question, in my opinion, is the extent to which we will have an additional pullback -- or if we are headed straight down from here. I'm set to short at resistance at 2523, but will the market pullback to that level again? Or is...
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Old

CADCHF Stalling As It Runs Into 50 SMA and 200 EMA

Posted 08-14-2014 at 09:05 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags cadchf

CADCHF exhibits a scenario with a few signs I really like:

1. First are the moving averages. The 50 SMA and 200 EMA are very close to each other, and price is just a shade below both. Moreover, price clearly is responding to this level as a resistance level.
2. At the same time, or rather related to the fact that price is below the moving averages, is that I think we are in the early phases of a downtrend.
3. Price has also pulled back a bit from its recent lows, and...
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Old

EURAUD: Now Offering Perfect Pull Back for Swing Traders to Go Short

Posted 08-12-2014 at 08:37 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags euraud

A great setup here on EURAUD that should delight many swing traders. Here's what we see:

1. Price is in a clear downtrend, below 50 SMA which in turn is below the 200 EMA
2. Price makes a 61.8% pullback from recent swing high to swing low
3. This 61.8% level intersects with the 50 SMA
4. Candlesticks show signs of exhaustion

All these factors, in addition to the fact that we are seeing signs of AUD strength and EUR weakness against other currencies,...
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Old

I Love Me Some Hammer Off Support!

Posted 08-11-2014 at 08:47 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags nzdjpy

Fine wine, a beautiful view of the ocean, sunny skies.......all of them are beautiful, but not quite as beautiful as a hammer off support. The only way this could be better is if price was above the 50 SMA, but at this point, the trend looks strong enough and the hammer is favorably positioned. I'm long at support at 86.30, where the hammer bounced off, with my stop at 85.45 and my target profit at 89.65 (where a double top has clearly formed). I'm risking 85 pips to gain 335, which gives me a reward/risk...
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Long Wick At Resistance in Downtrend on USDSGD

Posted 08-08-2014 at 08:16 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags usdsgd

It is definitely the pattern I find hardest to resist: when we see a long wick forming off support or resistance, I'm take an extra close look. And in the case of USDSGD, this long wick off resistance is coinciding with the 200 EMA, while we have pattern of lower highs in the background. All of this suggests the market may be ready to head back down. I'm short at 2532 with my stop at 2568 and my target profit at 2361. I'm risking 36 pips to gain 171, which gives me a reward/risk of 4.75.
...
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