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Going Long USDCHF as EURCHF Approaches Key 1.20 -- Will SNB Intervene Again to Weaken CHF?

Posted 11-20-2014 at 09:54 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags usdchf

The SNB is on record as saying that it will not allow the EURCHF exchange rate to fall below 1.20. Since this grand proclamation in 2011, the SNB has lived up to its word, defending the 1.20 level each time the EURCHF exchange rate goes there. We are currently very close to that level after a marked decline, and technically, we see signs of consolidation that often precede a reversal -- which in this case would be a move higher.

On USDCHF, we see a reversal candlestick after a pullback...
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Stopped Out on EURGBP, But Pattern Remains

Posted 11-19-2014 at 10:04 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags eurgbp

I tried this trade a few days ago, but got stopped out. The pattern remains valid, in that we are at resistance in a downtrend with reversal candlestlcks appearing. The reward/risk setup on this one isn't as nice as it was on my last trade, but I think the opportunity is still worth trying here.

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An 8 to 1 Reward/Risk Setup on EURGBP

Posted 11-17-2014 at 08:48 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags eurgbp

Nothing warms my heart quite like a legitimate setup with a high reward/risk ratio -- and that's exactly what we're seeing on EURGBP. The pair ran fast into resistance, and one of the by-products of any big move is that there won't be many support/resistance levels when the market decides to reverse itself. As the primary trend on EURGBP is still bearish, the stalling at resistance that we're currently seeing could portend a quick move back down to support at .7832. My stop is at .8012.
...
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EURAUD and GBPAUD Pull Back to Support

Posted 11-17-2014 at 08:39 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)

I saw a nice setup to go long GBPAUD as well, which I didn't take simply because I liked this setup a bit better. But confirmation on another pair strengthened my conviction in this trade.

EURAUD has pulled back to support, and the candlesticks seem to be respecting this support level. I'm long at 4270 with my stop at 4192 and my target profit at 4518.

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Going Against the Trend on GBPNZD

Posted 11-14-2014 at 08:56 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags gbpnzd

Normally I'm not interested in trading against the trend, but I think enough of an opportunity exists in going against the trend here -- and after much observation I think it may improve my trading -- I thought the setup on GBPNZD would be worth taking. We see price is in a bit of a downward channel, but has fallen to support where today's price action is stalling a bit. I think this is the market responding to support and perhaps gearing up to go back to the top of the channel. As such, I'm long...
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