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Shorting GBPCAD As It Runs Into Resistance After Sharp Rally

Posted Yesterday at 08:35 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags gbpcad

On GBPCAD, we're seeing:

1. A sharp rally that has now run into resistance, with today's candle being the first tentatively bearish candle since September 5
2. A 50% pullback from the swing high on August 5 to the Swing low on September 7
3. Price is just above the 50 SMA, and is well below the 200 EMA
4. Signs of GBP weakness and CAD strength are visible on other currency pairs as well

In light of these factors, I shorted GBPCAD at 8012, with my...
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Old

AUDCHF Pulls Back -- Time to Enter Primary Trend?

Posted 09-11-2014 at 09:41 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags audchf

What I'd really like to see out of this is a bit more candlestick confirmation, but I think there are enough signs in place to warrant pulling the trigger and placing an order. Price has pulled back to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and is above the 50 SMA and 200 EMA. While the candlestick confirmation could be stronger, we do still have long wicks on today and the preceding trading day. Moreover, we are seeing AUD approach key levels in other pairs, like GBPAUD.

...
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Old

Canadian Dollar is Ready to Weaken

Posted 08-28-2014 at 10:06 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags usdcad

I'm seeing signs suggesting that the Canadian dollar, which has been strengthening over the past few weeks, is now getting ready to reverse and decline in value. For many CAD pairs like AUDCAD, GBPCAD, or USDCAD, this means a long opportunity is information.

In the case of this particular chart, we are seeing hammers forming off a support level, at a 50% Fibonacci retracement level from a swing low to swing high. We are also seeing that price is above the 50 SMA and 200 EMA. I've...
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Old

Great Reversal Pattern & Swing Setup on USDSGD -- But Is the Move Already Underway?

Posted 08-21-2014 at 08:45 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags usdsgd

I really like this USDSGD setup; we see a clear downtrend, price has pulled back to a resistance level within this downtrend, which happens to coincide with the key 200 EMA. Moreover, we are seeing a reversal candlestick at this level as well.

The biggest question, in my opinion, is the extent to which we will have an additional pullback -- or if we are headed straight down from here. I'm set to short at resistance at 2523, but will the market pullback to that level again? Or is...
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Old

CADCHF Stalling As It Runs Into 50 SMA and 200 EMA

Posted 08-14-2014 at 09:05 AM by Simit Patel (Diary of a Central Banker)
Tags cadchf

CADCHF exhibits a scenario with a few signs I really like:

1. First are the moving averages. The 50 SMA and 200 EMA are very close to each other, and price is just a shade below both. Moreover, price clearly is responding to this level as a resistance level.
2. At the same time, or rather related to the fact that price is below the moving averages, is that I think we are in the early phases of a downtrend.
3. Price has also pulled back a bit from its recent lows, and...
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