Wyckoff on Steroids
Posted 12-05-2009 at 09:08 PM by Magic
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Updated 12-07-2009 at 03:50 PM by Magic
Updated 12-07-2009 at 03:50 PM by Magic
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bull market
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smart money
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tom williams
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wychoff
Tom Williams book "The Undeclared Secrets of the Stock Market" has often been referred to as "Wyckoff on Steroids".
[This has been revised and clarified in the blog entry "Smart Price Spread"]
Now it's time to revise the the concept of Wyckoff's "Composite Operator" or "Smart Money" into a better working definition. Then introduce Tom Williams' Two Principles of Volume Spread Analysis.
First is to subtract out what can be referred to as the basic manipulators like the specialists and market makers, who, though they can trade on their own account, have the specific job of making a "market". When orders come in ("order flow") they have to market these orders. If an order is to buy so many shares, they must sell that many shares to the buyer. In order to do this, they must have those shares on their "Books" or buy them. This puts them in the position to see both sides of a trade. The price they sell the shares at and buy the shares is the price spread. In this transaction they really don't have much to do in the market. They simply match a buyng price with a selling price - bid/ask.
But these so called "manipulators" are themselves manipulated.
If a professional trader (syndicate, dark pool, fund manager) with deep pockets places a large order to sell, they do so at a specific price. The order has to be absorbed by the market maker. The market maker is now holding a large sell order and has to cover it or resell it. (This is distribution.) This is why the price spread is so important. And this is why, in the "Smart Money" picture, the new defintion of manipulators does not include these jobbers. As Williams puts it:
"Volume Spread Analysis seeks to establish the cause of price movements and from the cause predict the future direction of prices. The cause is the imbalance between Supply and Demand in the market which is created by the activity of professional operators. The effect is either a bullish or bearish move according to market conditions prevailing...It is the close study of the reactions of the specialists and market makers which will give you a direct access to future market behaviour..."
It is not enough, however, to simply place a large order. The timing must be right - perfect. The professional trader will first plan and then launch, with military precision, a campaign to get their price. Who do they get their price from? The herd. So this "campaign" is psychological in nature. Look how Williams politely describes a bull and bear market:
"A Bull Market occurs when there has been a substantial transfer of stock from Weak Holders to Strong Holders, generally, at a loss to Weak Holders.
"A Bear Market occurs when there has been a substantial transfer of stock from Strong Holders to Weak Holders, generally at a profit to the Strong Holders."
According to Williams: "There are two main principles at work in the stock market which causes a market to turn. Both these principles will arrive in varying intensities producing larger or smaller moves."
Principle One:
The herd will panic after substantial falls and start to sell usually on bad news.
"Are the trading syndicates and market makers prepared to absorb the panic selling at
these price levels? (must be on a down bar). If they are, then this is a strong sign of
strength ."
Principle Two:
The herd will at some time after substantial rises as seen in a bull market become
annoyed at missing out on the up-move and will rush in and buy, usually on 'good
news'. This includes traders that already have long positions, and want more.
"Are the trading syndicates and market makers selling into this buying? (must
be a up-bar) If so, then this is a strong sign of weakness."
Finally, a revision to the definition of a Professional trader: a trader who understands and follows the footprints of Smart Money. Professional traders are predators - not victims.
[This has been revised and clarified in the blog entry "Smart Price Spread"]
Now it's time to revise the the concept of Wyckoff's "Composite Operator" or "Smart Money" into a better working definition. Then introduce Tom Williams' Two Principles of Volume Spread Analysis.
First is to subtract out what can be referred to as the basic manipulators like the specialists and market makers, who, though they can trade on their own account, have the specific job of making a "market". When orders come in ("order flow") they have to market these orders. If an order is to buy so many shares, they must sell that many shares to the buyer. In order to do this, they must have those shares on their "Books" or buy them. This puts them in the position to see both sides of a trade. The price they sell the shares at and buy the shares is the price spread. In this transaction they really don't have much to do in the market. They simply match a buyng price with a selling price - bid/ask.
But these so called "manipulators" are themselves manipulated.
If a professional trader (syndicate, dark pool, fund manager) with deep pockets places a large order to sell, they do so at a specific price. The order has to be absorbed by the market maker. The market maker is now holding a large sell order and has to cover it or resell it. (This is distribution.) This is why the price spread is so important. And this is why, in the "Smart Money" picture, the new defintion of manipulators does not include these jobbers. As Williams puts it:
"Volume Spread Analysis seeks to establish the cause of price movements and from the cause predict the future direction of prices. The cause is the imbalance between Supply and Demand in the market which is created by the activity of professional operators. The effect is either a bullish or bearish move according to market conditions prevailing...It is the close study of the reactions of the specialists and market makers which will give you a direct access to future market behaviour..."
It is not enough, however, to simply place a large order. The timing must be right - perfect. The professional trader will first plan and then launch, with military precision, a campaign to get their price. Who do they get their price from? The herd. So this "campaign" is psychological in nature. Look how Williams politely describes a bull and bear market:
"A Bull Market occurs when there has been a substantial transfer of stock from Weak Holders to Strong Holders, generally, at a loss to Weak Holders.
"A Bear Market occurs when there has been a substantial transfer of stock from Strong Holders to Weak Holders, generally at a profit to the Strong Holders."
According to Williams: "There are two main principles at work in the stock market which causes a market to turn. Both these principles will arrive in varying intensities producing larger or smaller moves."
Principle One:
The herd will panic after substantial falls and start to sell usually on bad news.
"Are the trading syndicates and market makers prepared to absorb the panic selling at
these price levels? (must be on a down bar). If they are, then this is a strong sign of
strength ."
Principle Two:
The herd will at some time after substantial rises as seen in a bull market become
annoyed at missing out on the up-move and will rush in and buy, usually on 'good
news'. This includes traders that already have long positions, and want more.
"Are the trading syndicates and market makers selling into this buying? (must
be a up-bar) If so, then this is a strong sign of weakness."
Finally, a revision to the definition of a Professional trader: a trader who understands and follows the footprints of Smart Money. Professional traders are predators - not victims.
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Hi magic,
Man, you're going full speed ahead!!
Well, your're a little off on this one. They're responsible for most of the small intra-day price movements and most of them are great at what they do. For example, if they have a large order on their book that they need to fill. They will drive down the price of a stock to force people to sell and to hit stops. They need to drive the price down lower than there average cost. Other traders will see this happening watching there MACD, Stochastics, RSI etc... and also begin to short (little do they know that they are late to the party) The market maker will allow the "dumbmoney" trader to keep shorting until they get tired. ("dumbmoney" doesn't move the market)Quote:When orders come in ("order flow") they have to market these orders. If an order is to buy so many shares, they must sell that many shares to the buyer. In order to do this, they must have those shares on their "Books" or buy them. This puts them in the position to see both sides of a trade. The price they sell the shares at and buy the shares is the price spread. In this transaction they really don't have much to do in the market. They simply match a buyng price with a selling price - bid/ask.
When the supply has dried up, the markup phase will begin. The market maker will begin to mark the price up and the stops of the "dumbmoney" (stops that are too tight, people trying to use ATR and all that stuff) will begin to get hit and help fuel the rally forward (GENIUS!!). As long as he can sell (on average) for more than he bought on the way down, he makes a profit. This happens over and over and over through out the day on various levels.
Buying and Distribution campaigns are a different story. Basically the same concept but on a much larger scale. These things take weeks or months to unfold.
Just to add, thats why you want to see a narrow spread. A narrow spread after this up move will show that the orders where equally matched at that level and the price is likely to fall or at the very least, consolidate. If there were more demand, the price would increase again after the up bar.Quote:The herd will at some time after substantial rises as seen in a bull market become
annoyed at missing out on the up-move and will rush in and buy, usually on 'good
news'. This includes traders that already have long positions, and want more.
"Are the trading syndicates and market makers selling into this buying? (must
be a up-bar) If so, then this is a strong sign of weakness."
Depending on the reason for the fall (could be several), The sign of strength or weakness is in the follow through. If there is a narrow spread bar on the next 2 bars, then we know the selling pressure has stopped. At that point the market may float back up for a few points or ticks and a test' will be conducted. If the test is successful, the demand should pick up and the market should rise. failure to get participation by other professionals after the test' is a further sign of weakness and the market will fall hard.Quote:The herd will panic after substantial falls and start to sell usually on bad news.
"Are the trading syndicates and market makers prepared to absorb the panic selling at
these price levels? (must be on a down bar). If they are, then this is a strong sign of
strength ."
Happy Trading
EktraderPosted 12-05-2009 at 11:38 PM by Ektrader
Updated 12-06-2009 at 12:26 AM by Ektrader [Show Appreciation] What's This? -
Hi Magic and Ek,
What do you think of Friday's great move in equities? How did the professionals act? Also, equities rallied strongly after the NFP came out way better than expected. However, the dollar followed suit. This is abnormal, you guys know the dolalr would fall when risk picks up.
Focus on the dollar now guys. I think the professionals absorbed those weak shorts, faded the initial down move and blasted price higher. Do you think that's what happened?
Ek, do you think the end of the dollar accumulation has come?
ForexerPosted 12-06-2009 at 05:34 AM by forexer
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Market Stabilization
I think what happen is everyone took the NFP report as the first real sign of US economic stabilization. Everything has been out of whack since oct '98 bubble burst. Indexes, metals, etc skyrocketing on very little volume with everyone waiting for the bottom to fall out and the US to go bankrupt. Now they know this isn't going to happen so those that were waiting and watching are getting back in and those that were on a euphoric, risk-taking high because of the falling dollar have had a doze of reality.Quote:Hi Magic and Ek,
What do you think of Friday's great move in equities? How did the professionals act? Also, equities rallied strongly after the NFP came out way better than expected. However, the dollar followed suit. This is abnormal, you guys know the dolalr would fall when risk picks up.
Focus on the dollar now guys. I think the professionals absorbed those weak shorts, faded the initial down move and blasted price higher. Do you think that's what happened?
Ek, do you think the end of the dollar accumulation has come?
Forexer
Hopefully the stabilization will continue so the market can get back in synch with risk-taking at a more sane level.
It would be nice if the old correlations started working again. Are you ready for the opening gap when the asian market opens today?Posted 12-06-2009 at 06:20 AM by Magic
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Market Stabilization
Who is everyone?Quote:
I guess it's the fear of loosing out that's driving equities? [/QUOTE]Quote:
I think the opening gaps would be caused my amateurs? I guess the news would very upbeat, markets would gap higher. Who knows? BTW. do you think Asian markets would follow US ones? If the US equities do fall hard, will Asian ones follow suit? I know it's a hard questionQuote:
ForexerPosted 12-06-2009 at 06:57 AM by forexer
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Yep!
I agree that the market maker moves the price and if the Professional trader is a big client they will run stops, etc. for him to get the price he wants. My point was that the Professional trader with a large order can set the market maker in motion to move the price where the Pro wants. Isn't that right?Quote:Well, your're a little off on this one. They're responsible for most of the small intra-day price movements and most of them are great at what they do. For example, if they have a large order on their book that they need to fill. They will drive down the price of a stock to force people to sell and to hit stops. They need to drive the price down lower than there average cost. Other traders will see this happening watching there MACD, Stochastics, RSI etc... and also begin to short (little do they know that they are late to the party) The market maker will allow the "dumbmoney" trader to keep shorting until they get tired.
DM can't change market direction or start a move, but they can, as a herd, add to the inertia of a move to keep it going for a while. For example, when gold was skyrocketing with very little volume, DM was doing that.Quote:("dumbmoney" doesn't move the market)
BTW: when is your website going to be up, or did I miss it somehow?Posted 12-06-2009 at 06:58 AM by Magic
Updated 12-19-2009 at 11:28 AM by Magic [Show Appreciation] What's This? -
Market Stabilization
Friday, "everyone" looked to be the whole planet. All the moves were on massive volume.
I wonder how many trillions changed hands friday? It looked like a whole lot of computers were setup to trigger a lot of moves at exactly the same time. Pull the trigger once and everything moved into USDs and treasuries.Quote:I guess it's the fear of loosing out that's driving equities?
[/QUOTE]I think the opening gaps would be caused my amateurs? I guess the news would very upbeat, markets would gap higher. Who knows? BTW. do you think Asian markets would follow US ones? If the US equities do fall hard, will Asian ones follow suit? I know it's a hard question[/QUOTE]
I'm pretty sure that after absorbing the news over the weekend, "everybody" is ready to do something when asia opens.
As far as asia following the US markets, I don't think they will follow. The will evaluate what's happening then move according to their own agenda. We know the gov in Japan doesn't want a strong yen, so they will do whatever it takes to keep the JPY in line with their policies.
It will be a good day for one (or two) of EK's gap plays and Lance Beggs Opening Range strategy.
8.5 hours till Sydney opens. Are you going to be studying?
Posted 12-06-2009 at 07:24 AM by Magic
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Market Stabilization
I have an econs paper tomorrow testing on inflation, national income and the equilibrium income level. Feeling good.
I still believe Friday's dollar rally was the work of the smart money, not the herd. I believe on Friday the herd was shorting at the start, shorting in the middle because they wanted to "fade" the rally and maybe gave up a little in the end. We need to see how it follows through on Monday.
ForexerPosted 12-06-2009 at 07:42 AM by forexer
Updated 12-06-2009 at 07:49 AM by forexer [Show Appreciation] What's This? -
Well everytime I try to call it I've been wrongQuote:Hi Magic and Ek,
What do you think of Friday's great move in equities? How did the professionals act? Also, equities rallied strongly after the NFP came out way better than expected. However, the dollar followed suit. This is abnormal, you guys know the dolalr would fall when risk picks up.
Focus on the dollar now guys. I think the professionals absorbed those weak shorts, faded the initial down move and blasted price higher. Do you think that's what happened?
Ek, do you think the end of the dollar accumulation has come?
Forexer
. But the accumulation was pretty obvious. It's just to hard to call on a weekly chart. It will rise , I just can't say when. Friday might have been the catalyst.
EktraderPosted 12-06-2009 at 06:40 PM by Ektrader
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[quote=Magic;bt4080]It's all your fault!
Well it gets more in depth but for the most part, thats the goal. Mainly though, there trying to profit for himself and the client. Even without the market maker, they can sell portions at specific time so that they can buy it back cheaper. REAL, accumulation is a slow process. Check the (/DX) or DXY chart. Perfect example.Quote:I agree that the market maker moves the price and if the Professional trader is a big client they will run stops, etc. for him to get the price he wants. My point was that the Professional trader with a large order can set the market maker in motion to move the price where the Pro wants. Isn't that right?
Not really, it takes massive volume to move any international market. Dumb Money just participates. Also, When the market is slow (maybe a few minute during the trading day). It only take them a little bit of money to move markets up or down. People assume that hedge funds and large traders sleep and go on vaction on holidaysQuote:DM can't change market direction or start a move, but can't they, as a herd, add to the inertia of a move to keep it going for a while. For example, when gold was skyrocketing with very little volume. Wasn't DM doing that?
. Yeah maybe the ones that work for retail accounts (401ks, retirement accounts etc..). These guys are the traders that get to there office at 9am and have a coffee and a bagel before trading starts just proud to be getting a huge salary
. Trust me, the real players never sleep. They ALWAYS look for opportunity. Even if it's from a yacht on the other side of the world.
Man...... I'm learning how to use the gotomeeting and save videos without putting them on youtube. So that I can host some proprietary lessons. Also I'm going to hold live trading sessions and maybe a few webinars. The good thing is, by using gotomeeting We can easily share each others screen and it will allow me to be a true mentor because I can teach right from the chart while you watch and participate 1-on-1 instruction. Ohh, also for any of my guys that use TOS. I had a programmer build me a few custom goodies for the platform that have already taken my trading to a higher level and I am going to be happy to share them with my clients for free. (I had to pay for them$$) I hope to be up and running soon, but I'm still learning the gotomeeting software. I'm trying to offer a quality service. Stay Tuned!Quote:Thanks Ek. This is the great thing about these blogs. If I screw something up, I don't want to find out when I start trading. Then have to unlearn something and start over.
BTW: when is your website going to be up, or did I miss it somehow?
EktraderPosted 12-06-2009 at 07:13 PM by Ektrader
Updated 12-06-2009 at 07:24 PM by Ektrader [Show Appreciation] What's This? -
Market Stabilization
I agree!Quote:I have an econs paper tomorrow testing on inflation, national income and the equilibrium income level. Feeling good.
I still believe Friday's dollar rally was the work of the smart money, not the herd. I believe on Friday the herd was shorting at the start, shorting in the middle because they wanted to "fade" the rally and maybe gave up a little in the end. We need to see how it follows through on Monday.
ForexerPosted 12-06-2009 at 07:16 PM by Ektrader
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[quote=Ektrader;bt4087]I'll work on this some more, then revise the post. Thanks for your input.Quote:Well it gets more in depth but for the most part, thats the goal. Mainly though, there trying to profit for himself and the client. Even without the market maker, they can sell portions at specific time so that they can buy it back cheaper. REAL, accumulation is a slow process. Check the (/DX) or DXY chart. Perfect example.
Not really, it takes massive volume to move any international market. Dumb Money just participates. Also, When the market is slow (maybe a few minute during the trading day). It only take them a little bit of money to move markets up or down. People assume that hedge funds and large traders sleep and go on vaction on holidays
. Yeah maybe the ones that work for retail accounts (401ks, retirement accounts etc..). These guys are the traders that get to there office at 9am and have a coffee and a bagel before trading starts just proud to be getting a huge salary
. Trust me, the real players never sleep. They ALWAYS look for opportunity. Even if it's from a yacht on the other side of the world.Posted 12-06-2009 at 07:48 PM by Magic
Updated 12-19-2009 at 11:30 AM by Magic [Show Appreciation] What's This? -
hey magic,
just finished reading the VSA book. Plan read it once again in a few days. According to the book it says never set a profit level in a trade and be alert when approaching a trend cluster. How far would this be applicable to the forex market?
And VSA would be applicable to every chart at any time frame in any market, have i got this right?
and volume in the fx market is only tick volume and not the actual volume, do we interpret the VSA to be accurate?
Thanks,
Nik.Posted 01-08-2010 at 03:20 PM by niksos
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Hi Nik
That's great. Then be sure to read another book (if you haven't alreadyQuote:
) called Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas (you can get from a link on the sidebar to the left). This is about mastering your personal psychology to take responsibility for your trades and not be a member of the herd.
Though there are some apparent contradictions in the book and this is one of them, but in context, I think the section saying not to set a profit level "in a trade" is trying to emphasize following the clues of the professionals for taking exits. Before entering a trade you should have some expectation of at least a 1:3 RR which would be based on the trend and resistance levels.Quote:According to the book it says never set a profit level in a trade and be alert when approaching a trend cluster.
Totally applicable.Quote:How far would this be applicable to the forex market?
Yep. However, the lower time frames require more experience so you have time for proper analysis before the market gets away from you.Quote:And VSA would be applicable to every chart at any time frame in any market, have i got this right?
Yes. First, understand that in vsa volume is simply a measure of activity and tick volume does this just fine. Low volume means there is no professional activity and high volume means they are busy working a campaign. And, most important, price always follows volume.Quote:and volume in the fx market is only tick volume and not the actual volume, do we interpret the VSA to be accurate?Posted 01-08-2010 at 06:15 PM by Magic
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So for intraday trading and from a point of view of a new student(me) of vsa which time frame would you suggest to start off with??Quote:Hi Nik
That's great. Then be sure to read another book (if you haven't already
) called Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas (you can get from a link on the sidebar to the left). This is about mastering your personal psychology to take responsibility for your trades and not be a member of the herd.
Though there are some apparent contradictions in the book and this is one of them, but in context, I think the section saying not to set a profit level "in a trade" is trying to emphasize following the clues of the professionals for taking exits. Before entering a trade you should have some expectation of at least a 1:3 RR which would be based on the trend and resistance levels.
Totally applicable.
Yep. However, the lower time frames require more experience so you have time for proper analysis before the market gets away from you.
and when are you planning to start off your own school of tradingQuote:
Yes. First, understand that in vsa volume is simply a measure of activity and tick volume does this just fine. Low volume means there is no professional activity and high volume means they are busy working a campaign. And, most important, price always follows volume.
??
Nik.Posted 01-09-2010 at 02:08 AM by niksos
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All of them...I'll tell you what I'm doing (as a student myself):
On weekends, when the market is closed, I go over the broad market studying the news (as a contrarian indicator), coming announcements, the futures, the cot, vix, etc.
Then I go over the charts. Starting with the weekly and working down, I draw trend lines and shade clusters using color codes like red for weekly, yellow for daily, and green for hourly.
Finally, I go back to daily and read the vsa tactics the SM has been using, then the hourly.
Pre-market: I look for opportunities for an entry on the lower time frames based on the trend. The charts tell me which time frame. If I can't a see a clear campaign from the pros, I don't trade. Without seeing the campaign, you will just be guessing which leads to price chasing and over trading.
Never!Quote:and when are you planning to start off your own school of trading
Keep in mind that I'm just a student with very limited experience and this blog is only my journey learning about trading.
When you're ready, I recommend EK's mentoring service. I'm very grateful to him for his journal and blog which, I believe, got me headed down the right path after a year of wondering through other methods and testing their strategies. And I'm grateful for his stepping up when I miss the point here and there.Posted 01-09-2010 at 07:07 AM by Magic
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Could you post one such chart of your trend lines and clusters.Quote:
Let me take this opportunity to show my appreciation for EK, when i first started out on Informed trades i would come across the posts of EK saying "Price is King" and then i wondered what was he saying but then i started studying VSA and now everything is falling into place and yes now i can also say price is king.Quote:
Never!
Keep in mind that I'm just a student with very limited experience and this blog is only my journey learning about trading.
When you're ready, I recommend EK's mentoring service. I'm very grateful to him for his journal and blog which, I believe, got me headed down the right path after a year of wondering through other methods and testing their strategies. And I'm grateful for his stepping up when I miss the point here and there.
thanks,
Nik.Posted 01-09-2010 at 04:35 PM by niksos
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Posted 01-09-2010 at 06:20 PM by Magic
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Thanks magic and Nik for the compliments..
Magic, you are clearly an advanced chart reader and it's just a matter of putting your knowledge to use before you begin to make money
. I appreciate that I was able to help you in your journey. I've read your blogs, posts, and messages and I'm confident you are there. You will begin to notice certain subtleties when you trade this way live but you will get the hang of it quickly. This isn't an attempt to say "Go jump in the market!!" because only you know when you're mentally ready. I'm just saying that from my perspective you are definitely ready.
Because of the work you have done with a methodology that I believe in whole heartedly. I am granting you a free key to my mentoring trading room. We can collaborate together. Thanks for your work.
Happy Trading
EktraderPosted 01-09-2010 at 07:28 PM by Ektrader
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They're well deserved.
I have to admit I'm getting anxious. VSA has really ripped away a lot of the confusion in the charts. There is a lot to learn, plus developing the chart reading skills when applying it.Quote:Magic, you are clearly an advanced chart reader and it's just a matter of putting your knowledge to use before you begin to make money
. I appreciate that I was able to help you in your journey. I've read your blogs, posts, and messages and I'm confident you are there. You will begin to notice certain subtleties when you trade this way live but you will get the hang of it quickly. This isn't an attempt to say "Go jump in the market!!" because only you know when you're mentally ready. I'm just saying that from my perspective you are definitely ready.
Anyone who thinks this is the easy road is in for a big surprise. It takes time and lots of hard work.
But I've only had a couple of weeks "abusing" the demo in forex. And forex is not the market I plan to trade, I still have a lot to learn about futures and options.
I was going to reply with stuff like how I don't deserve it and all...but hell with that - I'll take it.Quote:Because of the work you have done with a methodology that I believe in whole heartedly. I am granting you a free key to my mentoring trading room. We can collaborate together. Thanks for your work.
Thanks, EK.Posted 01-10-2010 at 09:38 AM by Magic
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