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diversification? no, all-time-high instead! + my market outlook + 3 warren buffett quotations

Posted 10-14-2009 at 06:03 PM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?
Updated 12-29-2009 at 07:55 PM by jaro g.

Tags all-time-high , diversification , dow-gold-ratio , market outlook , warren buffett

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folks, you still remember i told u not to diversify but to buy just the 'right' securities, do u? well, diversification makes sense just 4 folks who DO NOT KNOW what's right and what is not, which is prolly true for the most folks out there on the financial markets :-)

i wanted 2 tell u about the all-time-high in my gold-silver-commodities investment account already 3 or 4 days ago but couldn't find any time 2 do so. well, as the gold/silver price continued to move further upstairs, so did my portfolio :-). even today reached 20 out of my 123 positions their 52 weeks highs and few others are not far away from their yearly highs as well, most of them are commodity stocks, of course . could it be that it's the end of the game now and it's a time to sell everything? i don't think so as many of that stocks are still significantly below their summer 2008 levels, which was, of course, before that damned crashy october 2008 (pls, pls never come back!), so there is still some hope and still some space for some further increase, i believe ... so let's use the famous dow-gold-ratio 2 determine when is the time to sell .

i'm not sure if we will see an inflationary rally in price of everything besides the soooo weak USD or just an inflationary rally in gold/silver/hard assets/commodities and a crash in financial (paper) assets soon? hmmmmm, there is so much damned paper money out there, isn't it? it is not like the damned dreams-destroying october 2008, is it? but anyway: good-bye fiat money, good-bye corrupt governments, good-bye small dirty central banks! GO, GOLD BUGS, GO!!!

what about my market outlook for the next few months/years? what abt 3 recent quotations of warren buffett concerning the current situation on the financial markets? please scroll down 2 read the comments or jump there rirght now here :-)

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Posted in trading + investing + beliefs , me / difficult 2 categorize / hell

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1. 	hey jaro, you think US financial assets will crash (stocks and bonds), or you think globally all financial assets will crash? curious as to your opinion. thanks simit
   	Posted 10-15-2009 at 06:34 AM by Simit Patel [Show Appreciation] What's This?

2. my market outlook ... hi simit, i didn't respond for a while ... well, i was thinking about the answer :-) i do not think/feel all financial assets will crash as they did last october (stocks, interest rates, commodities, real estate, ...) i think we will see an inflationary rally in commodities and the steady rising gold price remembers us about that inflationary scenario, doesn't it? (some older guys often mention the 70ties in that context => ?). in my opinion we will prolly also see the demise of the USD soon as the world will not for ever deliver products & services to usa in exchange for self-printed green papers ... btw, the €uro is not any better, so i further think there will be some next monetary reform which will re-animate gold/silver backed currency/currencies again. bonds? i do not consider bonds in my 'universe' because they are too boring for me + my account is not properly capitalized for bond investments + in an inflationary scenario are bonds the worst solution possible, so why to think about them? stocks? i'm very bullish on precious metals (pm), so i'm even more bullish on pm-stocks, but why? is it just because i'm already so heavily invested or is there any fundamental reason for further increase? i'm really not sure ... unlike the most other gold bugs i even do not consider gold @ $1.000 cheap (you still remember my gold-price-manipulation blog post?). of course, there is the huuuuuge danger of inflation where all hard assets should perform well against paper assets (cash, bonds, today's low interest rate bank accounts, ...), especially well should perform silver (poor man's gold ) ... what about general stock markets like djia, s&p 500, dax? hmmmm, on the one hand there will always be some hot stories/technologies out there which will perform phenomenally (at the moment prolly batteries, lithium, electric cars, green energy + pm explorers) and on the other hand the major stock indexes contain also many commodity stocks (e.g. with alcoa, chevron + exxon is dow by 10% commodity related ), thus i do not think stocks will drop in price so dramatically as last october as there was no money in the markets at that time and many positions have been liquidated at any price because of margin calls etc. otherwise, stock prices will reflect the development of corporate earnings in the long run, here i'm really sceptical and i think the recent upswing on the markets since march moved the prices far too high, esp. the financial stocks are IMHO sooooooo overvalued, but i wouldn't go short... we never know how much money will the governments and their small dirty central banks add to the system and who will directly receive that new money next time ... maybe the banks/insurances again? i'm looking forward to your responce + your market opinion jaro. ps: i always look for purchase opportunities in the stock markets and always have few stocks on my watch list where i only wait for some fresh money to buy them, but not now! i've invested the major part of my remaining funds before my summer vacation between may and august [by some coincidence of luck & fate it was just few weeks/months before mining stocks really took off :-)] as i've been waiting for the gold rally to come in august, but there is not a single 'i-really-want-to-buy' stock on my list now ... are stocks too expensive already? nevertheless i'm not going to sell any stocks soon anyway unless the 100-years-dow-gold-indicator tells me to do so, it's an (inflationary) bull market, i think ... pps: what abt 3 recent quotations of warren buffett? a) "No one can know the precise level of net debt at which the United States will lose its reputation but a few more years like this one and we will find out." — Warren Buffett b) "Fiscally, we are in uncharted territory." — Warren Buffett, August 19, 2009 c) The people that behaved well are no doubt going to find themselves taking care of the people who didn't behave well... ~ Warren Buffett (illustration by lara tomlin)

   Posted 10-17-2009 at 08:00 PM by jaro g. Updated 12-29-2009 at 07:54 PM by jaro g. (picture uploaded) [Show Appreciation] What's This?

3. 	go, commodities, go! gold, silver, oil, gas, wheat, corn, copper, lead, sugar, common stocks, my portfolio ... UP, UP, UP !!! well, the poor USD collapsed again => is the inflationary hard-assets-rally back in town?
   	Posted 10-29-2009 at 11:43 AM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

4. 	inftation, inflation, inflation ... in money supply! global currency in circulation 1971-2009 => watch out! the inflationary folks eating monster out there :-) ... btw, GOT any GOLD, silver, house, farm land, picasso on the wall, any other hard assets ALREADY? global currency in circulation 1971-2009 => watch out! the in... on Twitpic
   	Posted 10-29-2009 at 12:32 PM by jaro g. Updated 10-29-2009 at 12:49 PM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

5. yabbadabbadoooo! my portfolio is back @ its all-time-high level again (btw, my stocks have needed 3 weeks to recover from the collapse in the last october days, their 'underlying' gold/silver recovered much sooner and broke out to new golden all-time-highs ) bye-bye, fraudulent fiat money system ps: i've bought 4 mining stocks and 1 geothermal company today (my ideas from the 2 days spent @ the munich's precious metals show/conference on friday + saturday), will make a blog post soon (the highlight? me trying to steal the soooo shiny canadian 100 kg gold coin), but i have to start to collect documents for my pretty tax advisor first and finish the stupid tax payments for 2008, otherwise i will have to keep posting from jail :-( and i'm hungy too! btw, i hate taxes!

   Posted 11-09-2009 at 05:20 PM by jaro g. Updated 11-09-2009 at 06:20 PM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

6. folks, how crazy is homo sapiens financialis actually? gold shoot up to a new all-time-high $1,122 today and then fell a little bit and quotes @ $1,104 now, what still is the 2nd or 3rd HIGHEST DAILY CLOSE in the freaking history of our fiat-money-universe .... my dear, gold still is expensive like hell, isn't it? do you know what did the gold mining stocks today? they fell between 2% and 15%. hallo? they will not make less profit if the gold price stays a day or two @ $1,104, will they? do i see s.th. else wrong again? btw, there are sooooo few stocks in my portfolio which didn't go down today and there is just one company which really advanced ~ levon resources rose +20.83%, the volume was 5 times the usual volume and the stock is approx +200% in the last 4-6 weeks. hmmmm, even if there was no official company news release in the last 10 days i suppose there must be s.th. going on there ... but i'm not going 2 google the web as too many red ink positions in the commodity sector would just depress me :-) let's go to bed early today and think abt how will my portfolio rebound if the gold price continues climbing higher and higher (my guess for december 31th is $1,300) good n8, j. ps: of course, do not forget the SILVER

   Posted 11-12-2009 at 05:56 PM by jaro g. Updated 11-13-2009 at 04:37 AM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

7. 	here we go! the very next day is gold back on its all-time-high, my portfolio will need prolly 2 more days to do the same ... well, the stocks fell faster than they rise
   	Posted 11-13-2009 at 09:37 PM by jaro g. Updated 11-14-2009 at 06:24 PM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

8. break-even point is not far away :-) folks, one more day like today (gold silver commodities UP; UP; UP!) and my portfolio would make up all losses i've accumulated since 2005, that would be great! just imagine my wife, how can she tell any longer i'm wasting money like a drunken sailor? hahahaha btw, my mini trading account is a little bit behind as it woud need 2 such great days (silver, natural gas, wheat, corn, ...) to reach its all-time-high again and 4 days like today (+ 600 €uros) to equalize former losses ... any conclusion? yes! trading is more risky than investing . how much more? 3 days! just my 2 golden cents , j.

   Posted 11-16-2009 at 06:56 PM by jaro g. Updated 11-16-2009 at 07:08 PM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

9. yep, it was a day like yesterday (gold up, up, up AGAIN), my portfolio could reach the ALL-TIME-ALL-COSTS-BREAK-EVEN-POINT 2day mr. market, thank u for paying me the education-fee after 4 hard interesting years back folks, it was a hard learning experience! of course, i will never forget the crashy october 2008, where also 'healthy' explorer companies without any needs for fresh capital like scorpio mining crashed approx 80% and so did my portfolio, will you?

   Posted 11-17-2009 at 05:14 PM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

10. 	I respect you and your portfolio alot. Sounds likea good monthly investment plan. Good going man! Forexer
    	Posted 11-17-2009 at 09:33 PM by forexer [Show Appreciation] What's This?

11. crazy financial markets or just crazy folks on the markets? heya folks , you know, my portfolio was at all-time-high yesterday. well, that was yesterday :-( ... today it was a little bit down through the day (approx. -1%), after market closed in germany i just wanted to see the results for the day ... ... well, my 5 biggest positions performed like this: scorpio mining -10,31% novagold -10,43% acadian mining -3,45% u.s. gold -7,88% orko silver -4,17% i just thought: oh my dear, gold has fallen to zero and silver much below that! you know what? after a small intra-day loss both gold + silver have recovered and the current quotes are: gold +0,15% silver +0,03% hell, how stupid is the homo sapiens financialis really? no, i'm not gonna 2 swear abt that this time ... i will better go take a bath and look later if the gold/silver stocks fell the same rate on the u.s. + canadian markets as well . did they? btw, dear readers of my blog, i'm not going to bore you 6 times in 10 days with a message that my portfolio is a little bit higher again (it is a very natural thing in an uptrend ), but i really wanted to tell you how unbelievable stupid we 'financial' folks as a group are

    Posted 11-19-2009 at 03:21 PM by jaro g. Updated 11-19-2009 at 06:23 PM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

12. Investment Portfolio Hi Jaro, First time reader. Looks like you have an excellent investment portfolio. Looking through the posts I can see that commodities have been a good acquisition for you. The Investment stance you have taken looks similar to that of Jim Rogers. As well as being into commodities, Jim Rogers is also heavily into China. Have you bought any asian related stocks/ companies or commodities since the crash? Also, Germany has a reputation for quality consumer goods (cars, household goods, audio systems), however they are also struggling to free themselves from the recession. Do you see the German economy changing its focus from manufacturing to something else & if so what would it be? I am interested to find out your oppinion. Thanks Char1ie

    Posted 11-20-2009 at 04:18 AM by Char1ie [Show Appreciation] What's This?

13. jim rogers? china? hi Char1ie, yes, i like jim rogers and his views on economy + the markets a lot , but unlike jim i like stock-picking and i'm not invested in china/asia. why not? well, i don't like politically regulated economy and i think in countries like russia + china there are still huuuuge regulatory impacts on the companies (even more than in the western world recently ) ... do you remember the russian oil company yukos? hmmmm, putin didn't like their CEO, put him in jail, put punishment taxes on the company and then in went bankrupt ... of course could the kremlin-approved competitors buy its asset for nothing... i think china is not any different ... 2nd, i also don't like the fact, that chinese companies have different types of shares (A, B, H, I, ...) and only special groups are allowed 2 buy particular share type ... all of these types have different price and the most expensive are the 'domestic' shares 'caus the poor chinese public isn't allowed 2 buy abroad ... well, it was not easy 2 read jim's recent book 'a bull in china' and not to buy any of these sooooo promising industries + companies (jim has provided even the ticker symbols in his book !). so i do participate in these huuuuuge chinese/taiwanese bull market only via my australian, canadian, u.s., south american etc. commodity stocks btw, for similar conscience-related reasons i do not invest in military & uranium companies as well (no matter how promising!), because i don't want to be jointly responsible for dead folks or radioactive polluted environment out there j.

    Posted 11-20-2009 at 11:31 AM by jaro g. Updated 11-20-2009 at 11:36 AM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

14. jim rogers? china? Quote: Originally Posted by jaro g. hi Char1ie, yes, i like jim rogers and his views on economy + the markets a lot , but unlike jim i like stock-picking and i'm not invested in china/asia. why not? well, i don't like politically regulated economy and i think in countries like russia + china there are still huuuuge regulatory impacts on the companies (even more than in the western world recently ) ... do you remember the russian oil company yukos? hmmmm, putin didn't like their CEO, put him in jail, put punishment taxes on the company and then in went bankrupt ... of course could the kremlin-approved competitors buy its asset for nothing... i think china is not any different ... 2nd, i also don't like the fact, that chinese companies have different types of shares (A, B, H, I, ...) and only special groups are allowed 2 buy particular share type ... all of these types have different price and the most expensive are the 'domestic' shares 'caus the poor chinese public isn't allowed 2 buy abroad ... well, it was not easy 2 read jim's recent book 'a bull in china' and not to buy any of these sooooo promising industries + companies (jim has provided even the ticker symbols in his book !). so i do participate in these huuuuuge chinese/taiwanese bull market only via my australian, canadian, u.s., south american etc. commodity stocks btw, for similar conscience-related reasons i do not invest in military & uranium companies as well (no matter how promising!), because i don't want to be jointly responsible for dead folks or radioactive polluted environment out there j. Exact sentiments Jaro! I for some hunch hate Chinese markets. I think it's really not theirs to claim that they will rule the economy next time. Dream on MR HU. ... The only reason China is where it is right now is because they have SOOOO many ppl living there. Well, the income discrepancy is like crap too. Wealth and power is very centralized and that means over saturation and unproductivity in the future. China is still partially a command economy, not a capitalist one. Still lot s to improve on. "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful" _- Buffett. IMO IMO: China is getting TOOOO much attention. And it's not worth that much. Forexer

    Posted 11-20-2009 at 12:19 PM by forexer [Show Appreciation] What's This?

15. germany changing focus? Quote: Originally Posted by Char1ie ... Also, Germany has a reputation for quality consumer goods (cars, household goods, audio systems), however they are also struggling to free themselves from the recession. Do you see the German economy changing its focus from manufacturing to something else & if so what would it be? I am interested to find out your oppinion. Thanks Char1ie hi Char1ie, i hope strongly germany will continue 2 produce & export quality consumer goods and not just toxic waste assets (and its soldiers) like usa ... sorry 4 that dirty joke, my dear american friends ... i was just kidding, i do of course know there is still GOOGLE, microsoft, apple, boeing, coca-cola, mcdonald's, ... and also the most 'modern inventions' like facebook, twitter etc. are originated from usa, .... i just liked the expression abt export of toxic assets so much ... you are not going 2 be offended now, ok? what abt the future? i think that germany + europe + usa will lose a big part of its market share on asia because after such a long period of wealth the homo sapiens becomes lazy, fat, convenient ... and other 'hungry' nations (or should i say 'hot' or 'willing' in that context?) will replace the yesterday leading western world like USA replaced UK a century ago

    Posted 11-20-2009 at 03:35 PM by jaro g. Updated 11-21-2009 at 04:47 AM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

16. go, gold bugs, go! gold + silver up like crazy 2day? my leveraged crazy-crazy-crazy portfolio outperformed both monetary metals a lot and is approx +4% today => a new all-time-high, of course btw, i'm not sure if my portfolio outperformed also XAU + HUI as there were soooo many big players like barrick, hecla, silver standard, goldcorp etc. which shoot up like hell today ... +6%, +7%, +9.13% (silver std) ... but who cares on a day like this?

    Posted 12-01-2009 at 04:55 PM by jaro g. Updated 12-01-2009 at 06:58 PM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

17. mr. market likes me + my stocks, i think :) why? just look at my top 3 positions yesterday: scorpio mining +4.84% novagold +15.24% on a news message, which IMO is not soooo bombastic (NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG)(US:NG) today announced that it has entered into an agreement to purchase a 100% interest in the Ambler property in northern Alaska, which hosts the high-grade copper-zinc-gold-silver Arctic deposit.). well, novagold is my new #1 u.s. gold +11.30% no news, my guess? i think the folks out there recognized that u.s. gold is not 100% the same as GOLD itself and therefore there is no need to 'send' us gold from $3.47 a share to $2.25 a share only because gold went from $1,200 to $1,100 of course, on a day when the top dogs perform like crazy, my portfolio reached a new all-time-high thx for this nice xmas gift, mr. market, thx!

    Posted 12-24-2009 at 05:34 AM by jaro g. [Show Appreciation] What's This?

jaro g.

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