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The Beginning of a Larger Trend Reversal???

Posted 08-09-2010 at 01:45 AM by hutrade [Show Appreciation] What's This?
Updated 08-09-2010 at 02:24 AM by hutrade

Hi everyone,

Thanks for stopping by my blog.

So I've been looking at some charts and putting my "feelers" out there and I've been finding things looking rather interesting (at least to me anyway haha!). I have no idea if I'll be right or wrong on this stuff but I'll just tell you what I'm seeing across some various markets.

Overall I think we may be entering into the beginning of a trend reversal across the board where various different markets all seem to be approaching important S/R zones and showing signs of possible reversals...this could make for VERY interesting moves (and couplings/decouplings) in the markets for the months to come (along with mid-term elections too no less!). Now what trend am I referring to? Well on equities we've been in a regression on a downtrend. This means that we've been bullish within a larger downtrend. Other markets have been responding in their own ways to that as well as to various other larger economic factors we are all quite familiar with I'm sure. So what I am seeing/saying is that I think we may START to see the beginning of that bullish regression move END in equities and we start heading lower. PLEASE understand this could be totally wrong b/c based on my latest observations, the stock market can just climb higher, higher, & then even higher thanks to our good buddy the carry trade, HFT, dark pools, news, CB's, etc. Plus if the US $ does bust higher finally then that stronger dollar MIGHT carry equities and commodities higher too--maybe even past this resistance zone in equities and elsewhere. (I don't know why I want to see equities drop so much but I do and I find that I have to monitor that desire within me when I am trading and picking my biases).

Here's a chart of the E-mini S&P for you to see what I am seeing.



And now for some other markets that I am also seeing somewhat similar "beginning of trend reversal" signals...I personally think August and September and then the final push of 2010 will prove to be rather "interesting" for the markets and economies world-wide...we shall see!! Here's what I'm seeing anyway. Feel free to post your thoughts and comments and questions below and thanks again for stopping by!!!

Here's my thoughts on Gold--/YG on TOS:



Here's my thoughts on Bonds (10 year to be specific--/ZN on TOS--note this is a MONTHLY CHART not a daily chart so this may be on a longer time frame--end of 2010 perhaps??). Also remember that when we see bonds continue to RISE we not only see interest rates LOWER but we are also seeing bond traders (aka really smart guys) have confidence in MORE DEFLATION (aka NO inflation)...could this be changing??? We shall see I'm just showing what I see up until now and what I'm considering and "aware of"...also when I saw on yahoo.com last week an article about why we all need to worry about deflation (when the US $ has been TANKING for months now!! haha!!) well THAT'S when I started to think about INFLATION possibly starting to trickle in! haha!!! My Primary News Bias...be VERY ready to fade the news brothers!!!



Finally here's my thoughts on the US Dollar (/DX on TOS). With both bonds and the US $ really ANYTHING could happen IMO...only time will tell as things "flush themselves out." I personally am still not yet seeing that double-dip in housing that everyone has been expecting (myself included) and I am beginning to wonder if they have figured out some way to "avoid" that dip yet AGAIN!!! Crazy dudes!! haha!! Anyway here's what I see with the US $...an approaching support zone (after all of these charts go figure!!).



Well that's my longer than usual post on what I'm seeing in the markets!! Thanks again everyone for stopping by. I hope you got something out of all this, feel free to post your comments and thoughts below.

Everyone have a great week and trade profitably!!!

MT

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  1. Old Comment
    forexer's Avatar
    Nice analysis Just one comment. Everyone, and i mean every freaking person on the newswires seem to think deflation is bad bad and bad. My question to them is would you rather have hyperinflation or deflation? Deflation is part and parcel of any phase of significant de-leveraging. Even folks who think we're in a de-leveraging stage that would last for some time seem do miss the point that deflation is good for the consumers and good for the banks.

    The darker "secret" and it's no secret but just that the FED and main stream people have brained washed us is that the FED and the government does not want inflation because that will be bad for its debt. They wish to inflate their way out of debt. They on one hand push for Fin Reg and greater scrutiny in the financial sector, that obviously means the banks are discouraged to leverage their balance sheets. And on the other hand, they dont want deflation. This CANNOT happen. Because of this major conflict in true concepts, i really think that whatever the FED does will have little positive impact on the broader economy. And if this gets extreme enough, US will fall into a depression... a long and dark one indeed.

    You'd like this pessimism
    permalink
    Posted 08-09-2010 at 02:48 AM by forexer forexer is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  2. Old Comment
    hutrade's Avatar
    Quote:
    Nice analysis Just one comment. Everyone, and i mean every freaking person on the newswires seem to think deflation is bad bad and bad. My question to them is would you rather have hyperinflation or deflation? Deflation is part and parcel of any phase of significant de-leveraging. Even folks who think we're in a de-leveraging stage that would last for some time seem do miss the point that deflation is good for the consumers and good for the banks.

    The darker "secret" and it's no secret but just that the FED and main stream people have brained washed us is that the FED and the government does not want inflation because that will be bad for its debt. They wish to inflate their way out of debt. They on one hand push for Fin Reg and greater scrutiny in the financial sector, that obviously means the banks are discouraged to leverage their balance sheets. And on the other hand, they dont want deflation. This CANNOT happen. Because of this major conflict in true concepts, i really think that whatever the FED does will have little positive impact on the broader economy. And if this gets extreme enough, US will fall into a depression... a long and dark one indeed.

    You'd like this pessimism
    indeed I do!! and I agree with you completely. I personally do not shy away from deflation at all...especially when we have SO MUCH CORRUPTION throughout our economy, businesses, and governments...a bit of pulling back and disintegration of certain "strongholds" is NOT a bad thing AT ALL in my opinion b/c from that disintegration we can have new and fresh and more relevant GROWTH AND CREATIVITY start to rise from the ashes like a phoenix!!! Then again I also have trading that I can "fall back on" in a sense to make (hopefully at least) some money regardless of the state of the economy. I know that not everyone is in that same position and I feel for them deeply and their fears and concerns about their livelihood and families while all this "stuff" goes down and things are (hopefully) rearranged rather than avoided.

    I like your POV on the FED's involvement being not only contradictory but also eventually leading us to a depression...I almost wonder if they don't WANT a depression considering they behave in such ways!?!?!?! Then again I STILL HAVE YET TO SEE IF QE IS INFLATIONARY!!! People don't seem to question that and I don't know why?!?! I've posted and blogged extensively about this and why QE does NOT necessarily bring on inflation. Regardless, eventually I think the US will learn it's lessons from the school of hard knocks about INTEGRITY and RESPONSIBILITY and how to manage the FREEDOM of capitalism and democracy ALONG SIDE PRUDENT AND WISE REGULATION/INTERVENTION which is ALWAYS necessary to place upon the human condition...no one is God down here...EVERYONE and I mean EVERYONE is not only susceptible to greed and fear...they will MORE THAN LIKELY fall into it's clutches sooner or later...PRUDENT AND WISE REGULATION/INTERVENTION helps to mitigate such concerns so that we don't spiral into a communistic state, an oligarchy, or a fascist regime...or some weird corporation hodge-podge cluster-@*#^ of who knows what...cough cough cough

    where do you think is the best place to measure if an economy is in inflation or deflation? It's currency? It's CPI? It's PPI? It's bonds? A combo of them? etc.?

    MT
    permalink
    Posted 08-09-2010 at 03:03 AM by hutrade hutrade is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  3. Old Comment
    Magic's Avatar
    Hey MT,

    You're really getting into the swing with you're analysis. And I completely sympathize on your doubts about your bias. I have a different bias (more towards recovery) and it's very hard to try to get around it - I see it everywhere. I guess my saving grace is that I'm not watching charts as much as I should and letting them tell me what my bias should be. Right now I'm just cutting out pieces of sentiment and looking at them one at a time. Later, I hope to join you and forexer at putting the pieces together.

    Meanwhile, thanks for the splendid work you're doing.
    permalink
    Posted 08-09-2010 at 10:59 AM by Magic Magic is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  4. Old Comment
    Magic's Avatar
    Quote:
    Overall I think we may be entering into the beginning of a trend reversal across the board where various different markets all seem to be approaching important S/R zones and showing signs of possible reversals...
    Voodoo? Wow...
    permalink
    Posted 08-11-2010 at 06:02 PM by Magic Magic is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  5. Old Comment
    forexer's Avatar
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Magic View Comment
    Voodoo? Wow...
    No wonder you didn;t comment on my analysis I see why now and i appreciate you not further humiliating me on my own blog. MT, great call and all credit to you.

    I'm just a losy predictor and a crappy trader. Thats a fact... thats why they say education is so important because if you fail, you can go elsewhere... that makes much sense now. guys!

    Forexer
    permalink
    Posted 08-11-2010 at 10:52 PM by forexer forexer is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  6. Old Comment
    hutrade's Avatar
    Quote:
    Quote:
    Overall I think we may be entering into the beginning of a trend reversal across the board where various different markets all seem to be approaching important S/R zones and showing signs of possible reversals...
    Voodoo? Wow...
    Hey buddy thanks for your comment man. Wow what a ride eh?!?! You know I always like to "umbrella" as many of my statements that I can on the markets by saying "I don't know for sure and I could be totally wrong" or something like that b/c really none of us EVER really KNOW what's going to happen FOR SURE. Tomorrow I could be totally wrong!! You just never know with this game FOR SURE and that's the risk imho and for me at least at this time HUMILITY in my views is the name of the game...it's rather interesting balancing both HUMILITY to your views (b/c the markets can do anything at any time) as well as conviction with your views (b/c the markets usually show us their cards before playing a hand)....hence money management right!!!

    But yeah I definitely feel AWESOME about these moves I called this past week!! and funnily enough I wasn't even around to profit from them!!! haha!! My wife and I had to take a road trip to Colorado last week so I didn't get a chance to watch the markets really at all (though I sure was thinking of them!!). I'm finally back on the internet after the trip and looking at them now (Wed 8/18/10) and boy everything moved as I saw it...wow that's cool!!! Let's keep that going day in and day out cuz I can use that money baby!!! haha!!!
    permalink
    Posted 08-18-2010 at 11:01 PM by hutrade hutrade is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  7. Old Comment
    hutrade's Avatar
    Quote:
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Magic View Comment
    Voodoo? Wow...
    No wonder you didn;t comment on my analysis I see why now and i appreciate you not further humiliating me on my own blog. MT, great call and all credit to you.

    I'm just a losy predictor and a crappy trader. Thats a fact... thats why they say education is so important because if you fail, you can go elsewhere... that makes much sense now. guys!

    Forexer
    hey buddy!! thanks for the comment man and encouraging words I appreciate that. But hey no harsh words on yourself bud...you're analysis has not only been CONSISTENT for a long time now it has also been VERY HELPFUL and INFORMATIVE for me and my studies of the markets and understanding of them and I KNOW for a FACT that's true for others in the IT world...IMHO you can definitely pick your head up, hold it high, and keep on going buddy. Remember what Airelon states..."a successful trader DOES NOT have to accurate ALL THE TIME." Remember that b/c it's crucial as we all from time to time make wrong calls (or puts!!) and false alarms, and maybe even lose some cash too along the way...it's all part of the game, we just work to control it and manage it...if you had good risk/reward scenarios set up in your trades you probably wouldn't have lost much cash in fact you may have made a bit depending on how you played them out. anyway enough of my ranting here (on my own blog no less!! haha!!)...I'll go over to your blog and post more there!! haha

    oh and by the way you HAVE TO keep posting your market analysis b/c I really benefit from bouncing ideas back and forth with you and others...it's crucial to my game and to keep things rolling in my head right...so you better not stop posting or else!!!

    MT
    permalink
    Posted 08-18-2010 at 11:09 PM by hutrade hutrade is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  8. Old Comment
    forexer's Avatar

    COLORado spRINGS

    Is it a nice place? I will start posting more next week, i'm god damned busy with some crappy work in the hotel restaurant where you clean up after those dinner's vomit . Well, guess what they pay a mere 7SGD/hour so i've earned $190 so far, what the hell... its so little isnt it? If i can teach real trading for $15 bucks an hour i'll be so glad man... but its hard to find students...

    Tight cash flow for my family now.. have to work to pay for my own bills. Going to fund my live account real soon, see it i can sustain gains, i cant afford to blow it up again man.

    And bud, no need to praise me so much, i hate to be wrong but learn to suck it up is a life skill. Thanks for your encouragement none the less.
    permalink
    Posted 08-19-2010 at 07:28 AM by forexer forexer is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  9. Old Comment
    hutrade's Avatar
    Quote:
    COLORado spRINGS
    Is it a nice place? I will start posting more next week, i'm god damned busy with some crappy work in the hotel restaurant where you clean up after those dinner's vomit . Well, guess what they pay a mere 7SGD/hour so i've earned $190 so far, what the hell... its so little isnt it? If i can teach real trading for $15 bucks an hour i'll be so glad man... but its hard to find students...

    Tight cash flow for my family now.. have to work to pay for my own bills. Going to fund my live account real soon, see it i can sustain gains, i cant afford to blow it up again man.
    I was actually staying in Denver, CO and yeah it was pretty nice. LOTS of sun up there in Denver and the Rockies are just incredible. I liked Boulder alot myself. We drove though Colorado Springs on the way to NM but I personally didn't see much there myself except for Pike's Peak which looks just stunning.

    yeah the working thing...I hear ya there!!

    Quote:
    And bud, no need to praise me so much, i hate to be wrong but learn to suck it up is a life skill. Thanks for your encouragement none the less.
    fair enough. I respect that for sure. Looking forward to your posts...

    MT
    permalink
    Posted 08-19-2010 at 11:59 AM by hutrade hutrade is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
 

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