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trading ideas and analysis

Posted 10-28-2012 at 10:05 AM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

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Hi Friends I am going to start a blog with trading ideas and analysis of the markets that I am trading. Hope you can chip in with your views and ideas.

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1. Hi friends, It is Christmas but while the wife is cooking around I thought to throw few words here. First gonna do the charts and then maybe rumble around. I am short N/J, moved the SL at BE, the pair is in a pull back and I will reenter once the pair enters the previous demand now supply. That would be around the 70 mark. I have highlighted my targets. Cable short too, currently 132 pips, SL at BE. Is this double top, no idea it might be a normal retrace within the channel. I think cable will reach the 1.60 level and will continue it's up, move. As long as we have healthy channel and the PA is above both EMAs I will trade north. Gold, love it. As I wrote before, gold reached the target almost up to a pip. ABC 3 waves correction of WAVE 2 from higher degree. Want to wait for some results from the fiscal cliff and I will jump long again. finally USD. what I like is that gold did not continue it's sell off and move along with the USD index. Reason, no idea, comments and reasoning - a lot. If gold does not stall at the previous swing high then IMO we will enter longer period of risk off. Some words. Now the big Q will be who will win! Liquidity or reality! Hole year market was rallying on QE3 hopes. Now we have even QE eternity!!!! On what I would bet? On my abilities to read the market! But on and all I am pretty bearish for the coming years. Some things that I learned during this year. 1 if you do not know what the market is doing or find your self lost, just close everything and sit back. One should not push one self into trades, when he does not feel comfortable. One should trade his set ups like a fanatic. 2 the market is always right and if your fundamental analysis does not comply with what the market is doing, close your trades/platform or be enough flexible to turn around your fundamental bias/view and trade your set up. This one goes to people who use fundamentals and technical in their trading. I am such "trader" and I had hard time this year to overcome my initial view of the markets. That brought me frustration, loses or just being on the side lines, which brought even more frustration. I wish all of you Merry Christmas!!!!!!!

   Posted 12-24-2012 at 10:31 AM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

2. 	When will the market go up on reality and not on hopes!!!! MANNNN
   	Posted 12-27-2012 at 03:53 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

3. Hi Friends, Sunday D-day. Waiting for the verdict from Capitol Hill. I am not going to speculate how the markets we will react based on any positive or negative outcome. Does not make sense to do so. But I am going to share one or few charts, not sure yet that I find important. SP500 we have made lower low and lower high on the daily. 50 and 100 EMA are flattening and maybe even with slight bias towards death cross. As we see there is trend line that is on the way. So all in all if SP breaks bellow 1388sh (bear in mind that different brokerages can have slight difference and the futures too in their quotes) we are going to correct even further and if SP goes over 1450 we will continue the uptrend. The Eu counter parts are still trading north and did not have any reaction towards the US news during the holidays, but I believe if we have negative outcome they will catch up very fast the US equities. Gold has held it's present lows. In case we have risk off reaction I will be very intrigued to see if gold will decouple. If not then Gold might take down the lows of 1530sh. So final post for 2012.I wish all of you great news year's party and see ya after the cliff!!!!!!

   Posted 12-30-2012 at 12:23 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

4. unfortunately today's results closed the cad/chf trade for 109 pips. Reasons: the pair hit supply and the 50 daily ema. I was expecting traders using the emas to sell off the 50 or the 100 which is lightly above. The supply is easy to be seen. Area from which the market sold rapidly of, which hints that sellers will sell the current visit. I will not initiate sell at this point because there is no PA support such entry. As the EMAs (50 and 100) are bearish I would say that it is safe to have further bearish bias on this pair. Now something to be watched. If the pair turns back down, one should draw fibs studies and be aware of 50 and 618 levels. The market we watch every day is a struggle of opinions. So some traders might be bullish this pair and they will look the enter on these common fib levels. I have asked my self how one can recognize if we have hit the turning point for major reversal? Well IMO it is very hard at least at this stage of my trading experience! Trying to identify the market sentiment through the PA I have come to the conclusion that the market bounces of important pivot points- fibs, pivots, emas, trend lines, name it. After market bounces of such pivot, the news and sentiment starts to reverse into the direction of the newly developing trend. I do not use tool such COT or SSI because, I am not big market maker and my positions are so small with tight SLs, so I prefer to concentrate on the charts and the news noise rather having extra information messing around with my chart reading. Lets take for example the late yen extreme sentiment. Since weeks a lot of people were calling for short term pullback. This was due to extreme long positioning on the U/J pair or short the yen futures. Well the yen continued to depreciate and I think a lot of people gut killed by shorting the yen pairs. So how to read the market? As they all say, trend is made of higher highs and lows for uptrend and lower low and high for down trend. But if it was so easy!!!!!!!! One has to think in dimensions when is trying to read and trade off the charts. But to cover this subject we gonna come back latter. While writing this post, FOMC came on the wires and set risk off tone. Will it has follow through tomorrow, we will see after NFP. But I have entered short aussie despite tomorrow's event. Hate the first week of the month!!! and something to laugh, enough with the boring trading stuff Jeff Dunham Spark Of Insanity - Walter - Part #1 - YouTube

   Posted 01-03-2013 at 02:28 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

5. yen futures are right on 0.382 from June 07 lows. Weekly stochs are oversold, I would suspect retracement to take place!!!!!!!! As you can see clearly the monthly over sold and bought are very accurate, of course we still have to take under consideration the prevailing trend. But I feel strongly that the yen we stall for while on these levels!!!!!!! We might retrace up the the neckline of the H&S!!!! few hours latter the daily shows nice volume!!!!! So I think the market has decided to stall for while. So I will try again to enter short N/Y

   Posted 01-04-2013 at 05:21 AM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

6. Today I entered long gold I had our retest with false break out, stops taken out!!!! Two charts would speculate if gold will continue the down move, well not sure but I have chart statement that tells me to go long. I have my stops in place today got killed on N/Y pair. Broke my rule to wait for rejection of the highs. aussie from yesterday's short I closed just with 40 pips, did not expect such strong up move after the NFP!!!!!

   Posted 01-04-2013 at 12:30 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

7. Hi friends last post for the week. Man what a ride. Honestly I could not make any good profits and even on my primary system I am down 3%. Mostly psychological mistakes. But lets just look at the first chart. Swissy, relative quiet pair, mirror to the fiber. In the moment the market opened on Wednesday boom up. No retrace no nothing, no structure from which at least me could trade off. As if the market makers had to let their frustration from the days before!!!!!220 pips up move and now down 90 pips, pure up and down swing. WOW!!! so as I see the charts I am risk on mode up to my bones. Two posts above I have shown my bullish case for gold, already in the trader with nice profit already, entered the trade at 1647. So Euro. I have tried to show on the chart what I have in mind. Daily stochastics have plunged down just in 3 days, wow!!!! Last year hehehe I broke the highs, now retraced and I believe ready for another run. I have high lightened the supply zone and one or two fibs that are on the way. So if we take out the 1.35 area then 1.4250 is on the menu. Can we get there? Do we have a case having in mind the broken economy, EU fiasco and printing press turned on? Well I think everything is possible. As daytraderrockstar says: The casino is opened....!!! edit: Sunday Wanted to add something on the EURO provoked by a thread by our friend Forexer It came to me the COT story. First of all as the CCI index and strategy I do not like to use COT. One of the reasons is that COT is lagging, because the information about the positioning of the big players is out 10 days later. So if last weeks move is the beginning of new down trend and the net short of the large traders have increased will find out next Friday or due to the New year's days maybe in two weeks time. Until then it would be very clear if the trend has reversed. If you would like to learn more about COT you can check this thread out So lets have a look at Forexer's chart. As we can see and learned from the thread at babbypips, we should follow the large traders, not the commercials, or if you would like, trade against the commercials, it is the same story. So on the chart we see how the non commercial traders have decreased to 0sh the net shorts. So if their positioning will continue the present trend - long euro, we should be buyers at every dip. swissy and pound you can check for your self but they are showing pretty much the same story. now the USD index. Would I state that the chart for me is bearish, I might. Is it? Well we all can look at it both ways. and there is devergence on the weekly, but you can check for your self out. Will USD collapse so much down? We will see. in the next post I am gonna show some pairs that I am looking to enter!!!

   Posted 01-04-2013 at 04:06 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

8. so my cross trades today so basically long the pair. Bounce off demand and lately this pair has tracked the cable and having in mind the strength in cable I entered the long trade. As I am having another pair with commodity currency (cad) in, there is something interesting that I observed. observe. Both pairs have bias towards the funding currency-pound and cad. So traders are trading these pairs with negative roll over. So when we have risk on mode with the majors, these pairs are trading risk off or towards the swiss frank. I have tried to play around with the fact that SNB pegged the frank to the euro and somehow it does not add up. anyways here is the other trade lower low lower high, pushed down by the EMA traders, and beautiful daily candle puts the odds for nice short trade. Of course I will follow closely and will try to protect sufficiently my equity. If the pair continues to trade lower then next targets are 300-500 pips. Start to like the crosses. In the past I haven't had success dealing with them, I hope I have turned around the story!!!

   Posted 01-07-2013 at 02:47 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

9. 	What chart is this that you have posted going short ?
   	Posted 01-07-2013 at 03:25 PM by Luke Myers [Show Appreciation] What's This?

10. Luke sorry I missed it. This is CAD/CHF another trade that waiting to set up is N/J. Got burned once, my fault. Now I am gonna sit and really wait and wait. even thought there are divergences I want to see weakness in this pair. It is shaping up a short because the Yen has stalled for second day at the 0.386 fib. I posted the YEN futures chart few post before. Yen made nice healthy green candle with decent volume to work with.

    Posted 01-07-2013 at 03:36 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

11. I just read on the news the other day that the next Japan Central Bank stimulus is going to be massive ! The article did not go into details but I would be cautions trying to buy Yen. Now going short Yen Futures, that sound like a great idea to me. I myself am going to look into that. I am so happy Japan is farther down **** creek then we are. Even if we are following them we can at least watch them fall off the cliff and at least have a chance to turn things around before then. Lets hope we get some real fiscal government austerity soon.

    Posted 01-08-2013 at 12:48 PM by Luke Myers [Show Appreciation] What's This?

12. 	the insane story is that they will issue debt in the size of 2 quadrillion yen, not sure how much is in USD. I am just doing counter trade. I have 1 lot on the futures. target the supply at 50 fib. Also I hope the ^%$#% N/J will show more weakness and I can short it down to 70.80sh or if we get lucky to 69.35sh
    	Posted 01-08-2013 at 02:04 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

13. 	Quote: the insane story is that they will issue debt in the size of 2 quadrillion yen, not sure how much is in USD. At the exchange rate of 80 Yen per dollar, it would be $25 Trillion USD. Sounds like the story might be exaggerating a little Cheers Tek
    	Posted 01-08-2013 at 07:11 PM by Tekmnd [Show Appreciation] What's This?

14. 	ups sorry!!! 20 trln. yen. At least I got the 2 right!
    	Posted 01-09-2013 at 12:41 AM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

15. killed on that long trade. Hammer on dailies do fail. But my mistake was that I was so arrogant to enter long due to the support of the cable's daily chart. What I did not take into consideration was, that cable and euro were waiting today's ECB and BOE. So far I have noticed that before CB policies statements, the underlying currency and pair will not change the present trend. In our case was down trend. We all can see what cable did. I got stopped out at BE long position, but got killed on that pair. So I hope lesson learned. There is another chart that I want to share remember the ITA40 from few months ago where I pointed the top of the range, the 17000 level? Well it did not hold. So if this is genuine break, then Europe will climb further. My take on the present weakness in Eu majors is due the CBs statement. Many analysts are not expecting any major policy change. So I believe that today the euro currencies will move higher and after the market is settled I am planing to go long some of the euro pairs and again to try to go long gbp/aussie

    Posted 01-10-2013 at 12:45 AM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

16. Hi friends, Sunday time for some charts. The theme of this post will be: EURO- 1.35, 1.38 and 1.4250 Big numbers,are we gonna get there?Can we get there on broken Europe and some fake made up data that last week some people suggested that Europe has bottomed? Not sure, but these are the levels that we should expect turn around or at least some type of substantial correction. 1.35 level is very strong. Supply zone, 0.50 fib and 1.382 extension from the previous major swing low. We have very beautiful channel and as long as it is not broken and we haven't made overbought lower high I will keep buying the sell offs. Also after Draghi's speech on Thursday Euro went through the Christmas/ New Years range. I suspect in the first days of the week to have some slight pull back. I did not take any longs on the Euro or shorts the Swissy because I got stuck with the cable. Made about 90 pips, but here was probably a mistake. from 140 down to 90 pips. On Friday during US session there was selling that I was not prepared to stay in and in fear to not lose more of my profits I closed. Maybe was a mistake and because I have my SL at BE I should have left the trade opened hence my bias is bearish USD. Was it a mistake or not we will find out this week. But when I see rejections from the Friday's lows I will take another long trade. aud/chf currently 107 pips the 0.96 level we have some buyers cad/chf which essentially is the same trade as aud/chf is up 80 pips. As long as we have risk on mood these pairs will continue to go lower. The gbp/aud that I had loss last week kind of did not give me what I want from PA point of view, I really hope It retraces back to the lows so that I can jump in. Gold another locked in trade. 1651 has demand level I hope it will hold. So that is it for today, I have things to share more, but I will do them tomorrow! Have a great week!!!!!

    Posted 01-13-2013 at 03:53 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

17. 	Everything that I am writing about here may fail at any moment. The art of being successful trader is to adapt! One shouldn't fight the market just to prove that his analysis is right. The market has its own logic. If you do not understand what is going on better sit back and watch.
    	Posted 01-14-2013 at 01:19 AM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

18. 	I agree 100% The market has its own logic for sure.
    	Posted 01-14-2013 at 09:44 AM by Luke Myers [Show Appreciation] What's This?

19. 	huge fibs confluence!!!!!! I think we have reached the pivot point for some type of pull back!!!!
    	Posted 01-15-2013 at 02:50 PM by hektor [Show Appreciation] What's This?

20. 	Yes, it looks like we are going to get that pullback in the yen. My mouth is watering just thinking about getting in short on the next signal.
    	Posted 01-15-2013 at 06:29 PM by Luke Myers [Show Appreciation] What's This?

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