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  1. Old Comment
    Tekmnd's Avatar

    Silver Monte Carlo Year-End Price Extrapolation

    Yes it is-
    Future price = Drift + Random Stochastic offset (Justified by Ito's Lemma)

    Drift = Volatility eroded Average of PDRs

    Random Offset = Normal Distribution (Justified by Central Limit Theorem)

    I am currently working on an overview video for a whole series on Market Modeling.

    Cheers
    Tek
    permalink
    Posted Today at 10:07 AM by Tekmnd Tekmnd is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  2. Old Comment

    Exit Strategies

    hi community,

    Im going through the second video and im lost on belief #7. it starts at 6:39. i understand that setting tighter stops will decrease your winning percentage because you get stopped out more at a smaller loss, and that setting wider stops increases your winning percentage, but when your stop does get hit you will have suffered a larger loss.

    Im lost on certain parts which are:

    1). "When we use stop management in an attempt to increase our winning percentage it often comes at the cost of a smaller average win/loss ratio through either smaller average wins or larger average losses."

    this to me sounds like while your winning percentage would be higher, the smaller average of wins to losses would almost make this not as good of a stop system then the 2nd one which uses tighter stops, has a lower winning percentage due to those tight stops being hit more, but the wins would be greater then the losses? Is that the reason the average win/loss ratio would increase if your winning percentage is low due to tighter stops that are being hit?

    2.) At the end of belief #7 did he switch the 2 styles around from the order they were explained before?

    i can see the effectiveness of both strategies but it seems to me that the 2nd one with tighter stops would make more sense, but this could only be because of my limited understanding of belief 7.


    i would greatly appreciate it if someone took the time to help clear that up for me.

    Thank you
    permalink
    Posted 01-23-2015 at 06:33 AM by marcussl55 marcussl55 is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  3. Old Comment
    x3mtrading's Avatar

    Silver Monte Carlo Year-End Price Extrapolation

    tek is that model based on a normal ditribution?
    permalink
    Posted 01-19-2015 at 07:04 PM by x3mtrading x3mtrading is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  4. Old Comment

    Sharing my thoughts on the topic of Oil

    Yes Andrew it's very interesting.I helped my brother over the years and we mainly worked and operated natural gas wells after completion.There will be plenty layoffs if the price continues to stay low or goes lower.
    permalink
    Posted 01-18-2015 at 03:24 AM by Rob123 Rob123 is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  5. Old Comment

    Did your broker go bankrupt this morning?

    Hey Shaun,This pepperstone broker you are referring to is a non us broker correct ? And they do not accept us clients ?
    permalink
    Posted 01-17-2015 at 08:09 PM by Rob123 Rob123 is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  6. Old Comment
    Tekmnd's Avatar

    Silver Monte Carlo Year-End Price Extrapolation

    This is a follow up to my Monte Carlo calculations.


    Orange line = price of silver
    Dark Blue center line = Expected path of price
    Pinkish lines = 1 standard deviation from expected path
    Light blue lines = 2 standard deviations from expected path


    Closing price of silver within 1% of estimation.



    Cheers
    Tek
    permalink
    Posted 01-17-2015 at 11:51 AM by Tekmnd Tekmnd is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  7. Old Comment
    KiwiPete's Avatar

    SPX500 Potential Head-and-Shoulders Top Coming Into Focus

    Hi all, new to the block and just looking through to see anything that catches my interest and found this post on the ES.
    Now I was of the understanding that one of the key intentions of the Fed with QE and low interest rates was to promote investment into other assets and stimulate the economy. This did work as it has lead to some pretty significant investment in various markets; for example SP500 and Russel have at least doubled in value and I think NASDAQ has more than tripled.

    Yes I know that interest rates have been kept low in an effort to stimulate investment in the economy but surely the time is now approaching when due to the significant amount of investment in the markets; that an economic bubble due to this accelerated rise in price may be on the horizon...

    So at some stage in an effort to avoid the bubble in the markets, the promulgated interest rates are going to have to be increased if this is not too late?

    How much of an impact upon investment on the ES is this going to have?
    Or will have a major collapse such as the one seen in Japan 1991-1992?
    permalink
    Posted 01-16-2015 at 10:25 PM by KiwiPete KiwiPete is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  8. Old Comment
    permalink
    Posted 01-16-2015 at 03:07 PM by Tekmnd Tekmnd is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  9. Old Comment

    Crowd Psychology & Manipulation: A 24 part video series

    Please give me access for these video. thanks..
    permalink
    Posted 01-13-2015 at 10:51 PM by hemanth hemanth is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  10. Old Comment
    Simit Patel's Avatar

    Sharing my thoughts on the topic of Oil

    here is an interesting article on this subject i thought was worth sharing: Can the U.S. Fracking Boom Survive With Oil $65 Per Barrel? - Businessweek

    i'm not sure fracking can survive long-term if prices are below 80. but in any event there is going to be a 6 month lag or so from when oil production is impacted, if at all, by the price of oil.
    permalink
    Posted 01-11-2015 at 10:04 AM by Simit Patel Simit Patel is online now [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  11. Old Comment

    Sharing my thoughts on the topic of Oil

    Oil

    I hope so.. I am short Crude in DTO
    permalink
    Posted 01-10-2015 at 06:37 PM by Investo Investo is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  12. Old Comment

    Consolidated Position Indicator for MT4

    Re: partial close, I posted some ideas/potential solution here;
    http://forum.mql4.com/66256#1004184
    permalink
    Posted 01-06-2015 at 09:18 PM by RV13 RV13 is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?
  13. Old Comment

    Russian Ruble Tumbles Further - Holding RUB Positions Far too Risky

    The fall of the ruble has brought great challenges to international companies.

    The collapse of the ruble gained maximum speed this week. In an effort to stop him, the central bank raised the rate to 17%, but got the opposite effect – accelerated “flight” of the ruble.

    In a crisis becomes perceptible effective or ineffective risk management. Currency risk – just one of many that now face us.
    permalink
    Posted 12-30-2014 at 03:07 PM by NensyDonovan NensyDonovan is offline [Show Appreciation] What's This?

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