Forex & Economic Commentary by Lloyds TSB

UK official retail sales growth may have been fairly flat on the month in July, after a sharp 3.9% contraction in June. On an annual basis, our forecast is for 2.5% growth compared with 2.2% a month earlier. However, we will be looking more closely at the 3-month rolling average growth rate (+0.6% in June), which is more reflective of trend growth than the erratic month-on-month data.

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