Ali,

I would be skeptical about fixed probabilities using candlesticks. My immediate questions are what are the time frames studied? Were trading costs factored into the probabilities? Candlesticks used for entries do not necessarily have cousin patterns for exits, so how do you determine if it is successful when the ending is not defined?

Candlestick trading is highly contextual. I focused heavily on candlesticks when I started learning to trade. The first observation is that the candles appear everywhere. The second is that it does not always look like the textbook. It takes a lot of experience to look at a chart and instinctively know which patterns are relevant and which are not.

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Shaun Overton
OneStepRemoved.com
Strategy and Automated Trading Development