Hey Mr. Dad,
Thanks for the response and for sharing some of your background it is always interesting to see how others got started and what their line of thinking is. Also thank you for the kind words I am glad you are finding the site and my videos useful.
As for the Australian Economy, I think there are two key factors to consider. One is commodity prices, which as you and Peter have pointed out are a key driver of exports for the country and therefore have a large affect on the AUD. The second, and perhaps more importantly at this stage in my opinion however, it economic growth which is certainly affected by commodity prices, but also relies heavily on domestic demand.
Up to this point the Australian economy has held up relatively well in comparison to the rest of the world's major economies, but many feel this is changing now, which would make the Central Bank more likely to cut interest rates than to raise all else being equal. For more on the general factors affecting the Australian Dollar see the video below:
A Traders Introduction to the Australian Dollar
As far as whether a strategy which relies completely on technical analysis, completely on fundamental analysis, or a blend of the two is best, in my opinion this is completely dependent on a traders beliefs and personality. What I can say however is that the way that it looks like you are thinking about the market is in my opinion in line with how many other successful traders think, and it also seems like you are building more and more confidence in this method as you see it working over time. That would seem to me as the type of recipe that builds success.
Best Regards,
Dave