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Old 01-03-2013, 11:22 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Demand for Silver Use is DOWN!


I know you have been told otherwise!


I will cover investment demand in the next video.
Link to the report-
Supply & Demand | The Silver Institute

Cheers
Tek

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Old 01-03-2013, 07:12 PM   #2 (permalink)
 
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thanks for posting Tek,

I think you are doing the community a bit of a dis-service by only including half the story and I look forward to your 2nd video on the subject.

Substitution is a natural part of decision matrix and as silver has increased in price, manufacturers have gone to less expensive materials. That explains the drop in silverware demand perfectly. Personally I would love to have a set of pure silverware wouldn't you ?

Photography is going the way of print. Its a product of the late 19th century and hit its high point in the 20th. Digital is not only cheaper and ubiquitous but ports to the web so simply. So again substitution is at work. Hopefully the gas powered car will go the way of print media... If the choice is electric thats more demand for silver right ?

Newsweek print is dead, does that mean the death of trees ? yes I know they are renewable while silver is not, but its the same mindset.

I think its important to retain a healthy skepticism as your video correctly points out. Know your information source, question decision making and look for opportunities that changing conditions present.

demand for is also up in some areas so it depends on your perspective I suppose.

Anyway thanks again for posting and hopefully we can see some silver "realists" post something intriguing.

ps you might want to spell check your presentation before posting
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Old 01-03-2013, 07:24 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Hi

Thanks for the comments.

Quote:
you might want to spell check your presentation before posting
I did. It doesn't always catch all of my mistakes lol
Verses is a word too (like in bible verses)

I pulled the video and re-posted it with the correction.

Quote:
I look forward to your 2nd video on the subject.
Thanks. It will probably take until next week, but I will show that investment demand is also down.

There is no way to count the amount of silver that is sold for investment.

Therefore, the silver industry takes the amount that can be counted, subtracts that from the total supply, and then assumes the rest goes to investment that is not from coinage. They call it "Implied Net Investment."

1. If the actual demand for investment that year equals the remaining supply (the implied net investment), inventories remain the same.

2. If investment demand that year overtakes the remaining supply, inventories shrink (like in 2009).

3. If investment demand is not enough to absorb the remaining supply, inventories grow.

Inventories at the COMEX are at 10 year highs and growing.

Cheers
Tek
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Old 01-03-2013, 09:00 PM   #4 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tekmnd View Post
Hi

There is no way to count the amount of silver that is sold for investment.

Therefore, the silver industry takes the amount that can be counted, subtracts that from the total supply, and then assumes the rest goes to investment that is not from coinage. They call it "Implied Net Investment."

1. If the actual demand for investment that year equals the remaining supply (the implied net investment), inventories remain the same.

2. If investment demand that year overtakes the remaining supply, inventories shrink (like in 2009).

3. If investment demand is not enough to absorb the remaining supply, inventories grow.

Inventories at the COMEX are at 10 year highs and growing.

Cheers
Tek
Tek, interesting about the spell check isn't it ?

One of my jobs requires me to check English meaning and spelling for a large conglomerate. I have found that reading things both forward and backward helps reduce mistakes. Obviously the net, forums and you tube are another matter entirely.

These are interesting numbers.

Would you say that decreased demand and increasing supplied have more to do with a global depression than the material uses for silver ?

My guess would be silver at $10, silverware and jewelry use would again rise... But thats just a guess on my part.

Of course the paper to silver ratio should also be a factor in pricing just as it should be for gold. If every paper holder of gold called for delivery there would be a decoupling of the "comex" price and the "physical" one.

If we are talking about the price traded in London for paper contracts and hedging that is different than the actual amount in warehouses across the globe right ?

Do you know what the paper to physical ratio for gold is ?
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Old 01-03-2013, 09:26 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Hi again

Quote:
Tek, interesting about the spell check isn't it ?
It's a lot better than it used to be- people see way less of my mistakes now
(In truth, writing a lot has vastly improved my spelling)

Quote:
Would you say that decreased demand and increasing supplied have more to do with a global depression than the material uses for silver ?
I would say that the global recession has reduced the demand for the material use of silver.

Quote:
My guess would be silver at $10, silverware and jewelry use would again rise... But thats just a guess on my part.
I really don't know, but I would be shocked to see silver drop below $20.

My long term views on silver are still the same-

It is still a hard asset and a great store of wealth. I have been saying for a LONG TIME that I feel 2 things will happen-

First, we will have a huge deflationary period, and you will see metals drop (like you will see other commodities drop). I believe we are hitting that now, but that's my view/opinion and I am not an expert

Second, we will see the debt rise to infinity, QE to infinity, endless printing etc to try and fix all of this causing a huge loss of faith in the USD and a flight to hard assets, making silver a GREAT CHOICE to be in then.

That doesn't mean silver will go straight up from here, and it doesn't mean there are shortages of physical silver now, and a massive conspiracy to artificially hold the price down.

I bet the masses watching my videos today had NO IDEA that COMEX inventories are at 10 year highs.

Notice that all the silver 'gurus' that were talking NON_STOP about shrinking inventories a couple of years ago as evidence that there is a physical silver shortage have remained completely quiet on the subject as inventories have recently shot up recently.

Cheers
Tek
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Old 01-03-2013, 09:42 PM   #6 (permalink)
 
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its certainly an interesting situation

I agree that a double whammy of depression and inflation is what will eventually cause a reboot however there are many bright people with deep pockets working very hard to keep the system in balance.

A small suggestion on how to tweak your presentation would be to start with your silver modus operandi, conclusions on where the financial situation is going then to discuss the inventory.

I have found over the years that people just simply don't get the entire message.

on the video and as I said I am looking forward to part 2
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Old 01-04-2013, 12:22 AM   #7 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lextalionis2001 View Post
thanks for posting Tek,

I think you are doing the community a bit of a dis-service by only including half the story and I look forward to your 2nd video on the subject.

Substitution is a natural part of decision matrix and as silver has increased in price, manufacturers have gone to less expensive materials. That explains the drop in silverware demand perfectly. Personally I would love to have a set of pure silverware wouldn't you ?

Photography is going the way of print. Its a product of the late 19th century and hit its high point in the 20th. Digital is not only cheaper and ubiquitous but ports to the web so simply. So again substitution is at work. Hopefully the gas powered car will go the way of print media... If the choice is electric thats more demand for silver right ?

Newsweek print is dead, does that mean the death of trees ? yes I know they are renewable while silver is not, but its the same mindset.

I think its important to retain a healthy skepticism as your video correctly points out. Know your information source, question decision making and look for opportunities that changing conditions present.

demand for is also up in some areas so it depends on your perspective I suppose.

Anyway thanks again for posting and hopefully we can see some silver "realists" post something intriguing.

ps you might want to spell check your presentation before posting
Still, no matter what! Demand is down and supply is up contrary to what we are lead to believe! The simple laws of supply and demand doesnt change even during different economic conditions, right???????? supply and demand balances all differant types of economic and market conditions putting them all on the same playing field!

Theres a great book you can read that explains what will happen to the metals in the near futher! Here is a excerpt from that book..........

They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their stomachs: because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity. Ezekiel 7:19
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Old 01-04-2013, 07:41 AM   #8 (permalink)
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First, we will have a huge deflationary period, and you will see metals drop (like you will see other commodities drop). I believe we are hitting that now, but that's my view/opinion and I am not an expert
Let me add though that metals could get a big bounce when congress debates the debt ceiling soon (and then creep back down slowly).

Cheers
Tek
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Old 01-04-2013, 01:25 PM   #9 (permalink)
 
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Everyone should dump their Gold and Silver NOW ! Silver just broke $30 and is falling like a stone. This could be the end of the Bull Market and Silver and Gold buyers could see many many more losses from here.

What if Silver gets to $20 and Gold to $1200 How much money will the Metal hordes loose in their faith ? Could Silver get back to $5 in the next 2 years ? Why not?
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Old 01-04-2013, 01:27 PM   #10 (permalink)
 
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There is a great book you can read that explains what will happen to the metals in the near futher! Here is a excerpt from that book..........

They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their stomachs: because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity. Ezekiel 7:19

Nice. I was thinking of that quote just the other day on your other post but I did not know what book it was in.
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