Quote:
Originally Posted by jaro g.
hi folks,
the direction of the next stock market move?
well, the worldwide stock markets fell already significantly, didn't they? but in my fundamental view on the markets there is still some space on the way down, especially for the financial sector. and maybe knows mr. market much more about the situation in iran/israel than we do, who knows?
... and in case of a severe war in iran are IMHO the stocks still too expensive, the commodities like oil + gold + silver still too cheap, the USD still overvalued (i think that the next u.s. war would mean a new dimension of u.s. deficit spending and that cannot help the megaweak USD, can it?)
... but it's just a guess and i wouldn't trade this whole war scenario myself. but i'm definitely long in silver + some other commodities because of my believes about the overall fundamentals (INFLATION, war, subprime crisis, supply + demand, ...)
regards :-),
j.
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Hey Jaro,
One thing that I cannot figure out on the inflation front that I would like your thoughts on. I don't think there is a doubt in anyone's mind that people are paying more for everyday things meaning that we are seeing inflation all over the world.
What I cannot figure out however is that if this is going to continue as many people expect then why are we not seeing the long end of the Yield curve reflect those concerns. A recent email newsletter that I am a subscriber to alerted me to the fact that yeilds 30 year bonds, which should have the ultimate sensitivity to inflation, have actually fallen from 5.1% to 4.5% over the last year.
If inflatoin is and is going to continue to be as bad as many are expecting, then how come yields at the long end of the yeild cover are not through the roof?
Best Regards,
Dave