hello there,

i am new to this site and may i just say, that it is amazing - information is ordered and excellent, thanks a lot david...

i have a question about ETF, i generally know what they are - but my question would be that i read some place where one reporter said in his blog that you can buy an ETF that tracks the index where if the index goes down then the ETF goes up and vice versa - is this true? i am trying to find something similar to this as i believe market will go down considerably in next few months and want to make some $$ in it...

if somebody can provide me with some info or reference where i can learn and read more about this, i would really appreciate it...

thanks,

harsh...

Sounds like what you are describing is a bear fund. One company that I know has these is ProShares ProShares ETFs – Funds - Overview (Hubpage) – – Overview. I don't personally own any of them, however. Here is an article on them as well: Bear Funds: Worth the Risk? - Kiplinger.com

If you want more info, just do a search for "bear market funds" and that should do.

rocketman7

Hey harsh,

Thanks for the comment I am glad you like the site and welcome to the community. If you don't mind my asking how low do you think the market is heading and are you basing that opinion on technicals or fundamentals?

I think the market is in a very precarious position right now from both standpoints and I am interested to hear others opinions as well.

Thanks for taking care of this one rocketman7, its pretty amazing how quickly the ETF market has exploded with instruments to do pretty much whatever you want in the market.

Best Regards,
Dave

Hey guys,

Thanks for the replies. I will check out the bear market fund and see what it is.

On my note to the market, I am assuming that on the basis of what's really going on right now in the economy. I just don't see a good rationale behind some of the things fed is doing - not increasing interest rates, bailing out banks, etc. market (in my opinion) is headed for much more trouble after the housing market burst. I think extra amount of cash flowing into the society created by Feds would make the matter worse by creating inflation to stabilize conditions in near short term but its long term effects are not good at all. I am no expert by any means and am just getting my foot into the whole finance/economic world but I can see the trend down hill - I can say that we are going to be in bear market, if not already there...

Harsh...

hi folks,

the direction of the next stock market move?

well, the worldwide stock markets fell already significantly, didn't they? but in my fundamental view on the markets there is still some space on the way down, especially for the financial sector. and maybe knows mr. market much more about the situation in iran/israel than we do, who knows?

... and in case of a severe war in iran are IMHO the stocks still too expensive, the commodities like oil + gold + silver still too cheap, the USD still overvalued (i think that the next u.s. war would mean a new dimension of u.s. deficit spending and that cannot help the megaweak USD, can it?)

... but it's just a guess and i wouldn't trade this whole war scenario myself. but i'm definitely long in silver + some other commodities because of my believes about the overall fundamentals (INFLATION, war, subprime crisis, supply + demand, ...)

regards :-),
j.

couldn't agree with you more, jaro. it's all about shorting the USD, in my opinion. still plenty of room on the downside. while i think there are some great profit opportunities in going long gold/silver and short USD, my main concern is to simply hedge myself against further inflation here in the USA.

Hey Harsh,

Thanks for that its definitely some good points that you make and I think that there are a lot of people that agree with them.

One of the things that I like about technical analysis is that it allows me to confirm fundamental beliefs like the ones you have outlined above and make sure that the market is reflecting those beliefs.

I learned this one in college watching the NASDAQ go up up up even though everyone seemed to know that the valuations were insane. So from my experience anyway the statement that "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" is one to always heed when trading fundamental opinions on the market.

This is another reason why money management is so important when trading opinions about the market and one of the things that Airelon does a great job of explaining in his free Intro to Trading Course.

Thanks again for your contribution and look forward to hearing more from you in the future.

Best Regards,
Dave

Hey Jaro,

One thing that I cannot figure out on the inflation front that I would like your thoughts on. I don't think there is a doubt in anyone's mind that people are paying more for everyday things meaning that we are seeing inflation all over the world.

What I cannot figure out however is that if this is going to continue as many people expect then why are we not seeing the long end of the Yield curve reflect those concerns. A recent email newsletter that I am a subscriber to alerted me to the fact that yeilds 30 year bonds, which should have the ultimate sensitivity to inflation, have actually fallen from 5.1% to 4.5% over the last year.

If inflatoin is and is going to continue to be as bad as many are expecting, then how come yields at the long end of the yeild cover are not through the roof?

Best Regards,
Dave

Hey Simon,

Would appreciate your thoughts on this one as well if you have a chance:

Question on Inflation

Best Regards,
Dave

hi simon,

i think mr. market had read our conversation today and he liked our ideas ;o):

'my' silver: + 3%
'your' usd/eur: +1,5%

pretty good for a single day, isn't it?

:-)),
j.