JeffShepherd

Hi everyone,

Ok today I sold my Silver ETF and about broke even, I know I should have got out yesterday and am kicking myself but I learnt a lesson about key reversals so not all was lost.

I'm looking to re-enter asap and want some advice on a good entry point. The spot price has bounced off a trend line which also coincides with a support level which is also approx the 61.8 fib level. I'm thinking if tomorrow opens higher than todays candlestick then it will be worth going for it?

My only worry is MACD is very high on the weekly chart and RSI is over bought.

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Simit Patel

proper entry point is in relation to time and proper exit point, so it may help to identify a point you think the price won't reach to the downside. almost like, "i'm willing to wager X that price will not reach _____"

28 looks like support to me. the trendline on the daily chart is at 26.80, so you could wait to buy at that level, if you think price will go there.

just my opinion of course
-- simit

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JeffShepherd

Simit,

Thanks for your reply. Whats your view on the weekly chart?

I'm beginning to change my mind about jumping back in now as todays candlestick doesn't look so good.

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The Chartist

Hey Jeff, If I may jump in...

I am glad you saw the key reversal and got out; hopefully at a profit There are more things to look at (worry about than indicators on silver). We have possible strength in the dollar which would have some downward pressure on silver along with some other technicals. In my picture there is a butterfly pattern with a very strong key reversal bar at its finish. (For more info on butterflies and other harmonic patterns follow Larry at his blog http://www.informedtrades.com/blogs/...l#comment16517) RSI and volume have been diverging with price as well. If you believe that silver will have a small correction before another leg up, I would look to buy in at first demand zone which also has a trendline right through it and is also the first profit target on the butterfly pattern.

Hope this is useful! Good luck

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JeffShepherd

Hi Chartist,

Unfortunately I didn't know about the key reversal until today or rather I saw it but didn't understand it.

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The Chartist

its ok. It seems like almost everyday I learn something new. As you might have figured out they are very powerful reversals and hardly show up unless there is a reversal about to take place (whether small or big).


Here is a better picture of my chart (sorry about last one I was in a hurry because i'm at work)

If that trendline is broken, I would think we would be in store for a bigger than expected correction for silver. In my first post I said a low risk opportunity to buy would be the $26.50 area. If that trendline is broken in the process of testing the demand zone, I would think that the next demand zone price would then test would be $24.93 area. Because of the trendline and how strong it has held through the past 4-5 hits, if broken, I think price will only be halted by $24.93 and may see stronger demand around $23.49. But that is just a prediction and buying at any demand zone will always be a good low risk trade.

With this move in silver, the dollar should get stronger propelling commodities, equities and spot pairs along the way.

Do you have a fundamental view of silver? What about a technical view?

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JeffShepherd

Crickey chartist I'm only just managing to get the hang of technicals, don't confuse me with fandamentals lol.

I'm just trying to buy on the dips and sell at the peaks, I've started to use Heiking Ashi candles to help with entries, slower than normal candlesticks but I find they are easier to understand when trying to read price action. Exits are my biggest problem I think, I bought silver using a daily chart but perhaps I need to look at a smaller time frame for exits, maybe 4 hour as 1 hour might be to short and give false signals.

I'm also looking at harmonic trading using MACD on a 1:3 ratio as I think daily and weekly is to slow.

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The Chartist

HA! Most of what I know are technicals and the intermarket relationships I was talking about above (commodities, dollar(currency) and equities). Anything fundamentals I am very weak on. A great source is forexer when it comes to metals.

Exits are the most important thing to master and can be the most difficult. There are many traders here that can help you so if you’re stuck reach out to them. Continue posting your trades and share your thoughts, emotions good and bad habits. That is the best way to learn.

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Tekmnd

Really, it isn't confusing at all-

Bad news about the economy or anything that migt add to fear or the feeling things are getting worse, or that the money supply is increasing means silver will go up.

Good news or anything that suggests things are recovering means silver will go down.

Cheers
Tek

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The Chartist

Nice summary Tek. You are very good at making any subject to the point and easily understandable. I can't see ANY good news to make silver reverse trends. lol Technicals suggest a correction though.

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