Hi David - awesome help again. I love the videos on Youtube - they're helping me brush up on materials which I have previously read.

Question for you - where do you 'think' the current market is headed.

In June 08, so far the only groups of stocks which are on the rise are mainly fertilzer/agriculture stocks, crude oil, and gas/drilling.

The other industries, in particular pharmaceutical, housing, banking, and tech stocks seem to be taking a major hit this year.

I realize you do not have a crystal ball in front of you - but where do you 'think' the market is headed? Do you forsee it starting to cap off soon with a slight dip to oil prices but continuing to rise as demand always stays high?

Do you see the energy market turning around any time soon or do you think that will happen a few years down the road when alternative energy resources starts to become more 'mainstream'?

Hi Chasleo,


Thanks for the comment I am glad you like the site. I am in the process of coming of with some pages which will allow me to give my opinion on where I think the market is headed a little more clearly. The thing that I am struggling with at this point is that I do not want people blindly following my analysis or anyone elses analysis besides there own as from my experience this is a recipe for disaster.

With this being said just as one trader giving his opinion on the market I think over the longer term the US Stock market is heading lower. In the short term however the market is very oversold and everyone seems to be short, which as Craig does a nice job pointing out in his video technical commentary from Friday, is a recipe for a short squeeze market bounce. So with this in mind I think we may see a market bounce in the near term.

As far as energy goes I think that while the long term trend in oil prices is up, I think that the current level of prices is not representative of market fundamentals and is exhibiting some of the tell tale signs of a bubble. With this being said the NASDAQ back in the 1990's exhibited a lot of the same signs and it kept going up for years before the bubble burst.

So with this being said if I had to say one way or the other on oil I would say higher because it would be hard to argue that we are not in an uptrend. I think there is a lot of indecision in the oil markets right now however and that it will be easier to make a good call on which way the market is headed when it eventually breaks out of the rectangle it is currently trading in which I pointed out in Thursday's chart of the day.

What are your thoughts on where the market is headed?

Best Regards,
Dave

**Disclaimer: My posts should not be considered trading advice, everyone please do their own analysis and take responsibility for their own trades.