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Old 05-30-2008, 01:57 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Will the US Dollar Remain King of the Currency World?


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In our last lesson we continued our free forex trading course with a look at why the US Dollar is still king of the currency world. As expected, this lesson generated a lot of debate, so in today's lesson we are going to look at whether or not the US Dollar will remain the king of the currency world.

As we discussed in our last lesson the US Dollar is involved in approximately 89% of all forex transactions, so the fate of the US Dollar has huge implications not only on the US Dollar, but on the forex market as a whole. While currently the US Dollar is still king of the currency world, many argue that the tides are changing, and that the US Dollar is in danger of losing this status. Whether or not this happens, to what extent it happens, and if it does happen how quickly or slowly it happens, is of huge importance to currency traders.

The most important reason why the US Dollar is king of the currency world is the fact that, as we learned about in our last lesson, it is the world's reserve currency. According to Wikipedia.com, as of 2007 there is approximately $7.5 trillion worth of currencies held as reserves by central banks around the world. Of that $7.5 trillion 63% or 4.7 trillion is held in US Dollars. This is an enormous amount of dollars being held by central banks outside of the United States, so forex traders watch closely anything that could show a decrease in the appetite of central banks for US Dollars.

Like with individuals and companies, other countries willingness to lend money to the United States (by holding US Dollar Denominated Debt as reserves) is based on the financial soundness of the United States as a whole. As we learned about in module 3 of this course, the US has run a large current account deficit for years. In addition to this, the country's government has also run large budget deficits. Like an individual who runs up large amounts of debt, this makes the debt of the United States less attractive, and has the potential to decrease other countries willingness to fund these activities, by holding US Dollar Denominated debt as reserves.

Secondly, many consider the monetary policy of the United States to be flawed, citing the Federal Reserve's increase of the money supply to hold interest rates low, as a major factor in the dollar's decline. As we learned about in our lessons in module 3 of this course, the lowering of interest rates tends to weaken the value of a currency all else being equal. As the value of the currency falls, countries around the world who hold that currency, see wealth evaporate due to the falling value of their reserves. This obviously has the potential to make the US Dollar less attractive for them to hold as their reserve currency, which means a decrease in demand, and a decrease in the value of the currency all else being equal.

As of this lesson the US Dollar has fallen over 35% in the last several years, as measured by the US Dollar Index. As we just discussed, this decreases the wealth of the countries who hold the US Dollar as their reserve currency, and has the potential to reduce their appetite for US Dollars, regardless of the reason for the decline in value. This potentially means a decrease in demand from the central banks to hold US Dollars as their reserve currency, and a decrease in the value of the currency, all else being equal.

US Dollar Index


With these three factors in mind, traders will watch carefully anything they feel will affect the willingness of other countries to continue to accumulate and hold the US Dollar as their reserve currency. Most importantly here are statements from any central bank or government officials in regards to this. While a statement from potentially any country in support of the US Dollar, or that they are diversifying away from the US Dollar has the potential to move markets, traders are especially sensitive to any hints from the largest holders of US Dollars which are listed here:


The final factor which people point to as a reason why the US Dollar may lose its status as king of the currency world, is because of the rise in prominence of the EURO, and its relative strength in comparison to the dollar. Before the introduction of the EURO, there was not really another currency which had the potential to compete on the same level as the dollar, as the reserve currency of the world. The famous former chairman of the US Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan, has even been quoted as saying: "it is absolutely conceivable that the EURO will replace the dollar as reserve currency, or will be traded as an equally important reserve currency." As you can see from the chart below, while the EURO still comes no where close to the US Dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency, it is slowly gaining ground on the Dollar, an important point traders will be watching.


That's our lesson for today. In our next lesson we will look at other factors which can give us clues as to whether or not the US Dollar will remain the king of the currency world and how this can alert us to potential trading opportunities.

As always if you have any questions or comments please leave them in the comments section below, and good luck with your trading!

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Old 06-02-2008, 10:45 PM   #2 (permalink)
 
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linking problem


Hey Dave,
The link to this video is going back to the previous one, i.e., it's showing your previous lesson.

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Old 06-03-2008, 11:40 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Hey Sam,

Can you check again looks ok to me this time.

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Dave
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Old 06-03-2008, 02:03 PM   #4 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by David Waring View Post
Hey Sam,

Can you check again looks ok to me this time.

Best,
Dave
Hey Dave,
Nope, it's still linking to "Why the US Dollar is Still King of the Currency World" - tried it at both work and home.

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Old 06-04-2008, 09:00 AM   #5 (permalink)
 
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Yeah, it's still linking back to the first video about the USD and king.

As to this topic? I've been trying to tell this to people for a while, but I think the last chart Dave posted regarding "% Share of Worlds Currency Reserve" says it all.

The USD isn't going anywhere in regards to being a 'dominant' currency. Especially with Asia growing. The Euro is gaining dominance. But it's not going to 'unseat' a currency that is held that greatly all over the world. You'd be talking about a loss of pandemic world ending proportions.
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Old 06-04-2008, 09:06 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Airelon View Post
Yeah, it's still linking back to the first video about the USD and king.

As to this topic? I've been trying to tell this to people for a while, but I think the last chart Dave posted regarding "% Share of Worlds Currency Reserve" says it all.

The USD isn't going anywhere in regards to being a 'dominant' currency. Especially with Asia growing. The Euro is gaining dominance. But it's not going to 'unseat' a currency that is held that greatly all over the world. You'd be talking about a loss of pandemic world ending proportions.
I must be going crazy here because I am still not seeing the problem. Are you guys referring to the previous lesson link or something else?

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Dave
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Old 06-04-2008, 09:07 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Airelon View Post
Yeah, it's still linking back to the first video about the USD and king.

As to this topic? I've been trying to tell this to people for a while, but I think the last chart Dave posted regarding "% Share of Worlds Currency Reserve" says it all.

The USD isn't going anywhere in regards to being a 'dominant' currency. Especially with Asia growing. The Euro is gaining dominance. But it's not going to 'unseat' a currency that is held that greatly all over the world. You'd be talking about a loss of pandemic world ending proportions.
never mind I see it now, the page is correct but the video is wrong. Will fix it up now.

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Dave
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Old 06-04-2008, 09:09 AM   #8 (permalink)
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problem fixed. Thanks for the heads up guys.

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Dave
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:59 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I want to find more information in regard of Washington not buying US Dollars since early 2000's in an effort to create artificial inflation. In other words, Allowing the dollar to fall on purpose and avoid deflation fears.

Just think about it. What would happen when Washington decides to sell Euros vs US Dollars?

I firmly believe dollar will remain King.
Hi Daniel,

Welcome to the community.

Many people feel that up until very recently the United States government under the Bush administration really had a hands off or even weak dollar policy even though they constantly stated that they had a strong dollar policy.

The reason I think most point to for them to do this was that since they did not feel that inflation was a threat a weaker dollar boosted US exports, something which was seen as a positive for the US Economy.

Things seem to have changed this week however as with oil prices skyrocketing as high as they have Bush, the Fed, and the US Treasury have all come out with much stronger rhetoric than normal in support of the US Dollar. This is one of the reasons we are seeing a large strengthening of the dollar in general this week.

For more info on this I recommend following the commentary at Dailyfx.com as well as the forex feeds in the video and headlines section of the InformedTrades Archive.

There is also a great piece on the question of Could Intervention Happen in the US Dollar? from Kathy Lien that I would recommend checking out as well.

Hope that helps and hope to see you around the community some more.

Best Regards,
Dave
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Old 06-10-2008, 10:38 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Hey Daniel,

My pleasure. It sounds like you have a good understanding of the FX market so I am glad to have you as a part of the community.

I agree that this is a big change for the US Dollar and could be very significant in terms of putting in a top for the currency. The only thing that would have me a little worried about that trade is that I think most are in agreement on that and anytime the "boat gets tipped too far in one direction" the market has a nasty habit of doing the exact opposite of what it should.

I am also in agreement that the longer term charts are where the moves are going to show on this one so I am putting my attention there as well.

Good Trading,

Dave
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