[pan]

anyone out there with thoughts on 'crox for the summer' please.



i'll dive in and tell you what i think is going on from what i see. the market has been selling off crox for the last 7months pretty hard, with a possible exception around february where it looked like the 'buyers' had something to say. after that, the 'sellers' took charge.

from April 2008 until now may 17th 2008, it appears that the buyers and sellers are picking themselves up and regrouping. for what? the price moves up, down or will continue sideways.

there are a few candles now that look like the buyers may be planning to take control.

opinions please :

my rudimentary technical analysis out of the way. is it worth considering what the company itself is about .

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/94/21...878e90ef_m.jpg

last year around this time, there stock started to rally. possibly the good weather and fashion for this product not only got customers buying them but also got traders interested in this stock.

could it possibly happen again this year and is there anything on the chart that might suggest it will?

any thoughts are always appreciated. pan

[David Waring]

Hey Pan,

Thanks for posting the chart makes things a lot easier to talk about when people to that.

I don't know anything about this company from a fundamental standpoint but just eyeballing the chart you have included below from a technical standpoint here are my thoughts.

- the long term trend is definitely down

- there was just a very big selloff in the stock represented by the long red candle and now the market is consolidating after that selloff.

- Normally when the market makes a big move like that it will consolidate and take a breather so to speak. I think most traders would agree that more times than not in this type of situation you will see the stock continue to trade in the direction of the original move after the consolidation, which is what formations like the flag are meant to help you trade.

- There seems to be an upsdown flag there which is formed off of the long red candle and the consolidation.

- So long story short if I was going to think about trading this stock based on the chart below my first inclination would be to have a bias to the downside and to potentially look to trade the breakout of the flag.

- Before trading it though I would look at the fundamentals, as well as the shorter term charts to see what they are saying as well as a couple of additional indicators to give me an idea of momentum in the market should it break.

- With this in mind how are the shorter term charts looking?

As always my stuff should be taken as educational and not trading advice.

Best Regards,
Dave

[pan]

heres the daily charts on crox.

if you had a reversal in the trend, what would you suggest to look at other then volume to identify it as being a real and not a false breakout?

technical analysis aside and incorporating some common sense, these shoes were fashionable last year and the market reflected that by seeing the price rise from $12 in may 2007 to $70 sept 2007. these shoes may be just as fashionable this year.

is there any place for common sense analysis when trading?

pan

[David Waring]

Originally Posted by pan

heres the daily charts on crox.

if you had a reversal in the trend, what would you suggest to look at other then volume to identify it as being a real and not a false breakout?

technical analysis aside and incorporating some common sense, these shoes were fashionable last year and the market reflected that by seeing the price rise from $12 in may 2007 to $70 sept 2007. these shoes may be just as fashionable this year.

is there any place for common sense analysis when trading?

pan

Hi Pan,

The first thing that I do when trying to determine if something is a real reversal in the trend is look mark the trend on the weekly, daily, and hourly chart by drawing in trend lines on each.

Next I confirm with volume.

Next I would look for other general areas of resistance or support in the direction of the reversal to see how strong the resistance is in this case to the upside.

Lastly I would look at some indicators for signs of a reversal such as the MACD and the Stochastic Oscillator.

For fundamental research I would suggest checking out Yahoo Finance.

Hope that helps.

Best Regards,
Dave

[pan]

thanks for that dave. it all helps.

pan