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10-05-2008, 05:30 PM
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How to trade the crash of EUR markets
If the European market is crumbling with unemployment raising, Factory orders falling, and real estate taking a dive. What pair will be the right one, or more appropriate?
Lopram  
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10-05-2008, 06:34 PM
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???
hi lopram, probably usd/eur :-). but are you sure that you are not a little bit too late for that bet? two months ago was 1 eur worth 1.60 usd, today just 1.3671 .... best luck anyway  ,j.
__________________
http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/ (my trading) http://www.jarogruber.de (beyond trading)
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10-05-2008, 07:01 PM
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hi lopram,
if you expect a crash of european economy you should probably short the eur, isn't it? well, i do not know in which timeframe do you trade, but for my 'taste' it is quite risky now as the eur fell already significantly ... but if you hold your trades in the market just for few minutes/hours then you can trade any currency pair and any direction (long/short) you like and do not have to worry about fundamentals )). of course, provided that your stop-loss-strategy is 'save' enough and your stops (exit points) are allways in the market ...(btw, i do not expect a crash of european economy even when in germany will probably tomorrow the first of seven(!) dax30 banks (= hypo real estate) collapse as there have been huge difficulties in its rescue plan on saturday. on sunday there was some hope again, but i do not expect that it will help its share price a lot. IMHO are the european problems not much different from the u.s. problems ....) bye ,j.
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http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/ (my trading) http://www.jarogruber.de (beyond trading) Last edited by jaro g.; 10-05-2008 at 07:07 PM.
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10-05-2008, 07:49 PM
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1 eur = 1.3609 usd
... is europe falling apart just now or is it just its currency ???bye folks + good night from germany, j.
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http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/ (my trading) http://www.jarogruber.de (beyond trading) Last edited by jaro g.; 10-05-2008 at 07:56 PM.
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10-05-2008, 08:02 PM
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Fundamentally, I think EURJPY is a great pair to short (see our recent thread on EURJPY). It has fallen a lot recently and it still has room to go, in my opinion. However, I trade EURUSD largely because I am more familiar and more comfortable with it, so I am short EURUSD now. Though ultimately I think the US has the worse economy, so I think we will see EURUSD rise again after this short-term correction is done. When this correction will end I do not know -- the chart will tell us.
 Here is our recent thread on EURUSD which you may find useful.
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10-06-2008, 04:33 PM
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Bollinger bands + lwma+ma =usd/chf =eur/usd =Reversal?
The usd/chf and eur/usd both had their 60 minute lwma/ma cross overs sunday afternoon that ran a nice 150 pips on the chf and a whopping 300pips on the eur. However, i think the chf ran out of momentum today and resistance is steady at 1.1490 which PROBABLY means the eur bottomed out and a Small rebound. The eur has already gained almost 100 pips since the 1.3445 bottom. The MACD caught this reversal nicely on the 5minute chart (eur/USD)
However, I'm only in the markets for the short side and LONGS on any pair doesn't look appealing with the uncertainty in the markets today . ====NO rollovers yet! Place a sell on the usd/chf with a stop above the resistance 1.1499+ and place a buy on the eur/usd with an appropriate stop loss. Goodluck
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