Forex and Economic Outlook by Lloyds TSB

On the day that the US House of Representatives gets a second chance to vote on the TARP - Troubled Asset Recovery Programme - economic indicators will have to take a back seat. For what it’s worth, our view is that indications after the 74 to 25 vote in the Senate in favour of the £700bn rescue package, the House of Representatives will vote the bill through, just. However, there will still be a lot of attention on the outcome of the nonfarm payroll data due 1.30pm UK time. The key to whether the US slowdown turns into an outright recession is dependent on what happens in the labour market. If employment holds up, the chances of recession are slimmer than if employment plunges.



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